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Identification of the Non-stationarity of Floods: Changing Patterns, Causes, and Implications

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Abstract

The assumption of stationarity in the flood time series is the basis for flood design and forecasting. Therefore, identification of the non-stationarity of flood series and the underlying causes is necessary for flood risk and water resources management. The Wei River Basin (WRB) of China was selected as the case study. Nonstationary flood behavior was examined comprehensively in terms of trends and the mean and variance change point. Then, the implications of the nonstationary flood series were explored. Furthermore, the impacts of antecedent precipitation, El Niño Southern Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Oscillation and vegetation coverage on floods were investigated. The results indicated following: (1) There is a non-significant delay in the timing of the annual maximum flood peak and seasonal floods across the basin; (2) the assumption of stationarity in the flood series is invalid, with significant downward trends and change points identified; (3) bias arising from the variance change point is much more significant than that of the mean change point in estimating floods; and (4) changing climate and human activities are jointly responsible for nonstationary floods in the WRB. These findings provide new insights into nonstationary flood behavior by emphasizing the importance of identifying the potential variance change points in the flood series, which is important for flood mitigation and water resources management.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51709221), the Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi (2015slkj-27, 2017slkj-19), Key laboratory research projects of education department of Shaanxi province (17JS104), and China Scholarship Council (201708610118).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710048, China

    Saiyan Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Qiang Huang, Xiaoting Wei & Lu Wang

  2. School of Hydrologic energy and power engineering, Research Institute of Modern Rural Water Conservancy, Yangzhou, 225009, China

    Yangyang Xie

  3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Hao Wang

  4. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK

    Guoyong Leng

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  1. Saiyan Liu
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  2. Shengzhi Huang
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  3. Yangyang Xie
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  7. Xiaoting Wei
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  8. Lu Wang
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Correspondence to Shengzhi Huang.

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Liu, S., Huang, S., Xie, Y. et al. Identification of the Non-stationarity of Floods: Changing Patterns, Causes, and Implications. Water Resour Manage 33, 939–953 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2150-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2150-y

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