Abstract
Meeting the worldwide energy demand is considered a critical task. However, the size and the complexity of the energy supply chain allows for potential threats to develop. On several occasions during the last few years there have been interruptions to the energy supply chain, recent examples being the hijacking of the oil tanker Sirius Star in November 2008 and the disruption of pipeline gas supply to Europe due to a price dispute. Causes for interruptions in the energy supply chain can also be natural disasters or accidental damage (i.e. earthquakes, ship collisions, pipeline fractures, etc.). The objective of this paper is to evaluate and identify the vulnerable components of the global energy network, to calculate the flow capacity loss in the case of a predetermined failure, and to optimize the supply chain layout so that potential loss is minimized. To accomplish this, a global network model of oil and gas maritime and pipeline links is developed. Utilizing a shortest path algorithm, a realistic spatial structure of transport links is achieved along with feasible alternative maritime routes. After modelling the worldwide energy network, failure scenarios involving the critical nodes and links are identified. The scenarios examine partial or complete failure of a selection of critical links and/or nodes, and by determining the flow through residual network, an optimized layout of the worldwide energy supply chain is determined and its robustness is evaluated.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
In this report petroleum is defined as crude oil (including lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids).
- 2.
The barrel of crude oil (bbl) is a common measuring unit for petroleum goods. It has a volume of 158 l.
- 3.
Other sectors comprise agriculture commercial and public service and residential.
- 4.
All the figures obtained through the EIA have been updated in 2005.
- 5.
Oil products figure includes liquefied natural gas (lng), liquefied petroleum gas (lpg), gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, light oil, heavy oil and others.
- 6.
This figure is based on 2006 data. During 2005 the same figure was 82.24 million bbl/day.
- 7.
The calculation is performed assuming a specific gravity for crude oil of 33API (American Petroleum Institute gravity).
- 8.
Deadweight tonnage (dwt) is a measure of the weight a ship can carry.
- 9.
Includes LNG and LPG tankers.
- 10.
The term “weakest link” refers to both network links and network nodes.
References
Begg, D., Fischer, S., Dornbush, R., 2005. Economics, 8th edition, Maidenhead, Berkshire, United Kingdom: McGraw-Hell Education
Brown, G., Carlyle, M., Salmeron, J., Wood K., 2006. Defending Critical Infrastructure. Interfaces, 36(6), p. 530–544.
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 2008. The 2008 World Factbook. Virginia, Central Intelligence Agency.
Davis, S., Diegel, S., 2006. Transportation Energy Data Book. 25th ed. Oak Ridge National Laboratory: National Transportation Research Centre.
Dantzig, G., 1960. On the shortest route through a network, Management Science, vol. 6, p. 187–190.
Dijkstra, E., 1959. A note on two problems in connexion with graphs, Numerische Mathematik, vol. 1, p. 269–271.
Dincer, I., Rosen M., 1998. A worldwide perspective on energy, environment and sustainable development. International Journal of Energy Research, 22, p. 1305–1321.
Dincer, I., 2000. Renewable energy and sustainable development: a crucial review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 4, p. 157–175.
Energy Information Administration, June 2006. International Agency Outlook 2006, Washington: U.S. Department of Energy.
Ford, L. R., Fulkerson, D. R., 1956. Maximal flow through a network. Canadian Journal of Mathematics, 8: p. 399–404.
Goldberg, A., Tarjan, R. E., 1988. A new approach to the maximum-flow problem. Journal of the Association for Computing Machinery, Vol. 35, No. 4, p. 921–940.
Hart, P., Nilsson N., Bertman R., 1968. A formal basis of the heuristic determination of minimum cost paths. IEEE Transactions of Systems Science and Cybernetics, 4(2), p. 100–107.
Hillier, F., Lieberman, G., 2005. Introduction to Operations Research. McGraw-Hill, New York.
Institution of Shipping Economics and Logistics, 2005. ISL Market Analysis 2005, Tanker fleet development. Bremen: Institution of Shipping and Logistics.
Institution of Shipping Economics and Logistics, 2005. ISL Market Analysis 2005, World merchand fleet, OECD shipping and shipbuilding. Bremen: Institution of Shipping and Logistics.
International Energy Agency, 2003. World Energy Investment Outlook, 2003 insights, France: International Energy Agency.
International Energy Agency, 2004. World Energy Outlook 2004, France: International Energy Agency.
International Energy Agency, 2006. Key Energy Statistics 2006, France: International Energy Agency.
. Interstate Oil and Gas Transportation to Europe (INOGATE), 2008. Inogate map of natural gas pipelines [Online]. Available at http://www.inogate.org/en/resources/map_gas.
Oil and Gas Journal, 2004. Oil and Gas Journal Data Book, Tulsa, United States of America: Penn Well Books
United Nations, 2004. World Energy Assessment, overview 2004 update, New York: United Nations.
United Nations, 2006. Review of Maritime Transport 2006, New York and Geneva: UNCTAD Secretariat.
United Nations, 2000. World Energy Assessment, energy and the challenge of sustainability, New York: UNCTAD Secretariat.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Zavitsas, K., Bell, M.G.H. (2010). A Simulation Model and a Vulnerability Assessment of the Worldwide Energy Supply. In: Bell, M., Hosseinloo, S., Kanturska, U. (eds) Security and Environmental Sustainability of Multimodal Transport. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8563-4_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8563-4_13
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-8561-0
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-8563-4
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)