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China: Short Cycles, Long Cycles

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An Economic Inquiry into the Nonlinear Behaviors of Nations

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Abstract

China’s current economic takeoff, which has been intertwined with its slow, and sometimes still worsening, social and political progresses, is not a miracle. Instead, it has been determined by the general law of dynastic cycles that have already existed in China for thousands of years. Moreover, we have found that most of China’s dynastic cycles were, to some extent, endogenously determined by the costs or difficulties related to the effective control of territories. According to our simulated results, which are defined under the optimistic, pessimistic, and modest scenarios, China’s GDP share to the world total (measured in terms of purchasing power parity or PPP) will definitely reach its peak around 2050, thus forming a growth cycle of the Chinese economy.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Prior to the advent of modern dams in China, the Yellow River was extremely prone to flooding. In the 2540 years prior to AD 1946, the Yellow river has been reckoned to have flooded 1593 times, shifting its course 26 times noticeably and 9 times severely (Tregear 1965, 218). The deadliest was the AD 1332–1333 flood that killed 7 million people. Close behind are the 1887 flood, which killed from 900,000 to 2 million people, and the 1931 flood (part of a massive number of floods that year) killed 1–4 million people (White 2012, 47).

  2. 2.

    More detailed analysis can be found in Yao (2014, 153–4).

  3. 3.

    Cited from Sima (91 BC, 911)—translated by author, based on the Chinese version.

  4. 4.

    For example, in the first half of the Shang dynasty, that is, from c. 1551 BC to c. 1312 BC, China’s capital city was moved five times, with an average interval of only about 50 years (Guo 2012, 12–13).

  5. 5.

    For example, as shown in Table 9.1 in Chap. 9, the body mass index (BMI) in countries dominated by the “Yellow” population tends to reduce by about 1.830 kg/m2 in 1980 and by about 2.687 kg/m2 in 2010 as compared with countries dominated by any other racial groups or aboriginals.

  6. 6.

    According to the Zongfa system, the eldest son born of the highest-ranking wife of a member of the royal household or nobility was called the “major branch” and inherited the right of succession to his father’s throne or noble title. Other sons were known as “minor branches.”

  7. 7.

    Historically, the Han dynasty is divided into two periods: the Western Han had its capital in Chang’an in the west; while the Eastern Han had its capital in Luoyang in the east.

  8. 8.

    See, for example, Wong (1963).

  9. 9.

    Evidence from the royal tombs indicates that royal personages were buried with articles of value, presumably for use in the afterlife. Perhaps for the same reason, hundreds of commoners, who may have been slaves, were buried alive with the royal corpse.

  10. 10.

    See, for example, Dai and Gong (2000, Vol. 1, 68).

  11. 11.

    Excerpted from Sima (91 BC; 1997, 558–60)—translated by author based on the Chinese text.

  12. 12.

    The period from AD 907 to 960 is known as the “Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms” period (wudai shiguo).

  13. 13.

    See, for example, Usher (1989), Chu and Lee (1994), and Nefedov (2004).

  14. 14.

    See Fairbank (1979, 80–104), Ching (1974, 78), Wills (1994, 35), and Dillon (1998, 87) for more detailed descriptions.

  15. 15.

    Cited from Guo (2013, 181).

  16. 16.

    In what follows, unless stated otherwise, all GDP shares are calculated by author, based on the data of Maddison (2007, 379), which are measured in purchasing power parity (PPP).

  17. 17.

    Note that this does not mean that China was the most prosperous at that time—its enlarged territorial size had made China the largest economy in the world. China’s technological and economic golden age should have been achieved during either the Tang (AD 619–906) or the Song (AD 960–1279) period.

  18. 18.

    See, for example, Andrade (2016, 188–95).

  19. 19.

    The total population of the five provinces was 108 million at that time (Gráda 2010, 245). See Platt (2012, 359–62) for a more detailed analysis.

  20. 20.

    The detailed analyses of the pros and cons of China’s one-child policy would include Sleeboom-Faulkner (2011), Wang et al. (2012), and Fong (2015).

  21. 21.

    It was the capital of the Shang only in the last period.

  22. 22.

    Figure within parentheses does not include the “Warring States” period (i.e., from 475 to 221 BC).

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Peking University, Beijing, China

    Rongxing Guo

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  1. Rongxing Guo
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Appendix: China’s Major Dynasties: Selected Indicators

Calculated by author, based on Guo (2013, 268–9).

Appendix: China’s Major Dynasties: Selected Indicators

  1.  1.

    Xia (c. 2100–1700 BC)

    • Capital city: NA

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): NA

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): NA

    • Length of existence (years): c. 400

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous and exogenous

  2.  2.

    Shang (c. 1700–1046 BC)

    • Capital city: Yin (near today’s Anyang)Footnote 21

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 1200

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 3.0

    • Length of existence (years): c. 654

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Exogenous

  3.  3.

    Zhou (1046–221 BC)

    • Capital city: Hao (near today’s Xi’an) (from 1046 to 771 BC); Luoyi (today’s Luoyang) (from 771 to 221 BC)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 1200 (from 1046 to 771 BC); 950 (from 771 to 221 BC)

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 3.4

    • Length of existence (years): 825 (571)Footnote 22

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous

  4.  4.

    Qin (221–206 BC) (or ninth century–206 BC if the preunification period is included)

    • Capital city: Xian’yang (near Xi’an)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 2000

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 3.6

    • Length of existence (years): 15 (or much longer if the preunification period is included)

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous

  5.  5.

    Han (206 BC–AD 220)

    • Capital city: Chang’an (today’s Xi’an) (from 206 BC to AD 25); Luoyang (AD 25 to 220)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 3200 (from 206 BC to AD 25); 3300 (AD 25 to 220)

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 8.9

    • Length of existence (years): 426

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous

  6.  6.

    Jin (AD 265–420)

    • Capital city: Luoyang (from 265 to 316); Jiankang (Nanjing) (from 317 to 420)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 3500 (from 265 to 316); 2000 (from 317 to 420)

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 9.2 (from 265 to 316); 2.3 (from 317 to 420)

    • Length of existence (years): 155

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Exogenous and endogenous

  7.  7.

    Sui (AD 581–618)

    • Capital city: Chang’an (from AD 581 to 605); Luoyang (from AD 606 to 618)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 3200 (from AD 581 to 605); 3100 (from AD 606 to 618)

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 8.4

    • Length of existence (years): 37

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous

  8.  8.

    Tang (AD 619–907)

    • Capital city: Chang’an (today’s Xi’an)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 3500

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 12.5–8.0

    • Length of existence (years): 289

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous

  9.  9.

    Song (AD 960–1279)

    • Capital city: Kaifeng (from AD 960 to 1127); Lin’an (today’s Hangzhou) (from AD 1127 to 1279)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 2000 (from AD 960 to 1127); 1700 (from AD 1127 to 1279)

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 4.6 (from AD 960 to 1127); 4.0 (from AD 1127 to 1279)

    • Length of existence (years): 319

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Exogenous

  10. 10.

    Yuan (1279–1368)

    • Capital city: Dadu (today’s Beijing)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 4000

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 16.8

    • Length of existence (years): 89

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous

  11. 11.

    Ming (1368–1644)

    • Capital city: Nanjing (from AD 1368 to 1420); Beijing (from AD 1421 to 1644)

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 2000 (from AD 1368 to 1420); 2600 (from AD 1421 to 1644)

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 7.1

    • Length of existence (years): 276

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous and exogenous

  12. 12.

    Qing (1644–1911)

    • Capital city: Beijing

    • Distance between capital and farthest frontier (km): 3900

    • Area of territory (million sq. km): 13.1

    • Length of existence (years): 267

    • Major force(s) for collapse: Endogenous

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Guo, R. (2017). China: Short Cycles, Long Cycles. In: An Economic Inquiry into the Nonlinear Behaviors of Nations. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-48772-4_7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-48772-4_7

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