In many highly developed countries, remarkable progress has been made in recent decades in reducing death rates, especially at older ages. New statistical data on mortality over time and up to the highest ages have revealed the time and age pattern of these improvements. These data have permitted reliable estimation of the age-trajectory of mortality, which turns out to follow a logistic pattern with deceleration at advanced ages. Individuals are heterogeneous with regard to their chances of death, and the frail tend to die first. Deeper understanding of the age-trajectory of mortality and the pattern of mortality improvements hinges on the development of statistical models that incorporate such mortality selection. This paper surveys the dynamics of mortality over age and time, reviews some “frailty model” approaches to analysing these dynamics, and presents some illustrative findings from studies of Danish twins and of the surface of Italian mortality over age and since 1895. Our goal is to participate in the debate on longevity from a demographic point of view and disclose the underlying features of accelerating human longevity. We are of the opinion that an analysis of this nature could help reveal the triggering factors. The study is a first step towards achieving this goal.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Caselli, G. (1996) “Future longevity among the elderly”. In: Caselli, G., Lopez, A. D. (eds.), Health and Mortality Among Elderly Populations. Oxford: Clarendon Press, pp. 235-265.
Caselli, G., and Capocaccia, R. (1989) “Age, period, cohort and early mortality: An analysis of adult mortality in Italy”, Population Studies, 43:133-153.
Caselli, G., and Egidi, V. (1981) “L’analyse des donn ées multidimensionelles dans l’ étude des r élations entre mortalit é et variables socio- économiques, d’environnement, et de comportement individuel”, Genus, 37(3-4):57-91.
Caselli, G., Vaupel, J. W., and Yashin, A. I. (1985) “Mortality in Italy: Contours of a century of evolution”, Genus, 41:39-55.
Caselli, G., Vaupel, J. W., and Yashin, A. I. (2000) “Longevity, heterogeneity and selection”. Atti della XL Riunione Scientifica della Societ à Italiana di Statistica, pp. 49-72, SIS 2000, Florence, p. 437.
Christensen, K. (1995) “Mortality among twin after age 6: Foetal origins hypothesis versus twin method”, British Medical Journal, 310(6777):432-436.
Clayton, D. G. (1978) “A model for association in bivariate life tables and its application in epidemiological studies of familial tendency in chronic disease incidence”, Biometrica, 65:141-151.
Clayton, D. G., and Cuzick, J. (1985) “Multivariate generalizations of the proportional hazards model (with discussion)”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A, 148:82-117.
Finch, C. E., and Kirkwood, T. B. L. (2000) Chance, Development, and Aging. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Gompertz, B. (1825) “On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality”, Philosophical Transactions, 27:513-585.
Hauge, M. (1981) “The Danish twin register”. In: Mednick, S. A., Baert, A. E., Backmann, B. P. (eds.), Prospective Longitudinal Research, An Empirical Basis for the Primary Prevention of Psychiological Disorders. London: Oxford University Press, pp. 218-221.
Horiuchi, S., and Coale, A. (1990) “Age patterns of mortality for older women: An analysis using the age-specific rate of mortality change with age”, Mathematical Population Studies, 42:389-406.
Horiuchi, S., and Wilmoth, J. R. (1998) “Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at older ages”, Demography, 35(4):391-412.
Hougaard, P., Bent, H., and Holm, N. V. (1992) “Assessment of dependence in the life times of twins”. In: Klein, G. P., Goel, P. K. (eds.), Survival Analysis: State of the Art. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 77-97.
ISTAT. (2004) Tavole di mortalit à della popolazione italiana per provincia e per regione di residenza. Anno 2000, http://demo.istat.it.
Kannisto, V. (1996) The Advancing Frontier of Survival, Vol. 3, Odense: Odense University Press. (Odense Monographs on Population Aging).
Kirkwood, T. B. L. (1990) “The disposable soma theory of aging”. In: Harrison, D. E., (ed.), Genetic Effects on Aging II. Caldwell: NJ Telford Press, pp. 9-19.
Kirkwood, T. B. L., and Rose, M. R. (1991) “Evolution of senescence: Late survival sacrificed for reproduction”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B. Biological Science, 332:15-24.
Klarsfeld, A., and Revah, F. (2000) Biologie de la mort. Paris: Edition Odile Jacob.
Manton, K. G., Vaupel, J. W. (1995) “Survival after the age of 80 in the United States, Sweden, France, England and Japan”, New England Journal of Medicine, 333(18):1232-1235.
Manton, K. G., and Yashin, A. I. (2000) Mechanisms of Aging and Mortality: A Search for New Paradigms, Denmark: Odense University Press. (Odense Monographs on Population Aging no. 7).
Marigliano, V. (1995) Invecchiamento e longevit à . Roma: CESI.
McGue, M., Vaupel, J. W., Holm, N. V., and Harvald, B. (1993). “Longevity is moderately heritable in a sample of Danish twins born 1870-1880”. Journals of Gerontology Biological Science, 48(6):B237-B244.
Medvedev, Z. A. (1990) “An attempt at a rational classification of theories of ageing”, Biology Review, 65:375-398.
Neale, M. C., and Cardon, L. R. (1992) Methodology for Genetic Studies of Twins and Familie. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Robine, J.-M., Vaupel, J. W., Jeune, B., and Allard, M. (1997) Longevity: To the Limits and Beyond. New York: Springer.
Rose, M. R. (1991) The Evolutionary Biology of Aging. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Soliani, L., and Lucchetti, E. (1997) Les facteurs genetiques de la mortalite. In: D émographie: analyse et synth èse. Causes et cons équences des évolutions d émographiques, Actes du S éminaire de San Miniato, Vol. I, pp. 71-84, Materiali di studi e di ricerche, numero speciale, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche and Institut national d’ études d émographiques-INED, Rome, Paris.
Thacter, A. R., Kannisto, V., and Vaupel, J. W. (1998) The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120, Vol. 5. Odense: Odense University Press. (Odense Monographs on Population Aging).
Vaupel, J. W., and Carey, J. R. (1993) “Compositional interpretations of medfly mortality”, Science, 260:1666-1667.
Vaupel, J. W., Manton, K. G., and Stallard, E. (1979) “The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality”, Demography, 16:439-454.
Vaupel, J. W., Bent, H., Holm, N., Yashin, A. I., and Xiu, L. (1992) “Survival analysis in genetics: Danish twin data applied to a gerontological question”. In: Klein, J. P., Goel, P. K. (eds.), Survival Analysis: State of the Art. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 121-140.
Vaupel, J. W., Carey, J. R., Christensen, K., Johnson, T. E., Yashin, A. I., Holm, N. V., Iachine, I. A., Kannisto, V., Khanzaeli, A. A., Liedo, P., Longo, V. D., Zeng, Y., Manton, K. G., and Curtsinger, J. W. (1998) “Biodemographic trajectories of longevity”, Science, 280:855-860.
Williams, G. C. (1957) “Pleiotropy, natural selection and the evolution of senescence”, Evolution, 11:398-411.
Wilmoth, J., Vallin, J., and Caselli, G. (1989) “When does a cohort’s mortality differ from what we might expected?”, Population (english edn.), 12:93-126.
Yashin, A. I., and Iachine, I. A. (1994) “Mortality models with application to twin survival data. In: Halin, J., Karplus, W., Rimane, R. (eds.), CISS-First Joint Conference of International Simulation Societies Proceedings. Zurich, Switzerland: Simulation Councils, Inc. pp. 567-571.
Yashin, A. I., and Iachine, I. A. (1995) “Genetic analysis of durations: Correlated frailty model applied to survival of Danish twins”, Genetic Epidemiology, 12:529-538.
Yashin, A. I., and Iachine, I. A. (1997) “How frailty models can be used for evaluating longevity limits: Taking advantage of an interdisciplinary approach”, Demography, 34(1):31-48.
Yashin, A. I., Vaupel, J. W., and Iachine, I. A. (1995) “Correlated individual frailty: An advantageous approach to survival analysis of bivariate data”, Mathematical Population Studies, 5(2):145-159.
Yashin, A. I., and Manton, K. G. (1997) “Effects of unobserved and partially observed covariate processes on system failure: A review of models and estimation strategies”, Statistical Science, 12(1):20-34.
Yashin, A. I., Iachine, I. A., Christensen, K., Holm, N. V., and Vaupel, J. W. (1998) “Genetic component of discrete disability traits: An analysis using liability models with age-dependent thresholds”, Behaviour Genetics, 28 (3):207-214.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Springer
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Caselli, G., Vaupel, J.W., Yashin, A.I. (2007). Explanation of the Decline in Mortality among the Oldest-Old: A Demographic Point of View. In: Robine, JM., Crimmins, E.M., Horiuchi, S., Yi, Z. (eds) Human Longevity, Individual Life Duration, and the Growth of the Oldest-Old Population. International Studies in Population, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4848-7_17
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4848-7_17
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-4846-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-4848-7
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)