Productivity, Investment in Infrastructure and Population Size: Formalizing the Theory of Ester Boserup

Abstract

The popular hypothesis of increasing Retums in the new growth theory has an implication which has been inevitably related to population. The assumption of ‘learning by doing’, almost by definition, implies that productivity growth is an increasing function of the aggregate production activity, which in turn might be affected by the size of population. One version of the ‘human capital’ approach to growth assumes that the external effect in production depends on the total stock of human capital, which in turn leads to a positive relationship between population and technological growth. A third approach to modelling increasing Retums is to emphasize the ‘non-rivalry’ factor, normally referred to as ‘knowledge’, in the production technology. Some researchers (such as Romer, 1990) concentrate on the public accessibility of knowledge when it is used; others (such as Arrow, 1962) show that the per capita cost of creating knowledge is inversely related to the population size. In either case, a larger population size can support more publicly accessible knowledge, which is another kind of connection between technological growth and population.¹