Skip to main content

The Anatomy of Inflation: An Economic History Perspective

  • Living reference work entry
  • First Online:
Book cover Handbook of the History of Money and Currency

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of inflation continues to remain at the center of work in macroeconomics. This chapter provides an up-to-date survey of inflation and its principal driving forces. The chapter starts by reviewing stylized fact about inflation and summarizing the behavior of in inflation in some commodity money systems. It then summarizes the main theories that are used to explain movements in inflation. We also discuss the role played by inflation volatility and episodes of hyperinflation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Aarstol M (1999) Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and relative price variability. South Econ J 66:414–423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abel A, Dornbusch R, Huizinga J, Marcus A (1979) Money demand during hyperinflation. J Monet Econ 5:97–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baglan D, Yazgan M, Yilmazkuday H (2016) Relative price variability and inflation: new evidence. J Macroecon 48:263–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barro R (1976) Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy. J Monet Econ 2:1–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benati L (2008) Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regime. Q J Econ 123:1005–1060

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benati L, Lucas R, Nicolini J, Weber W (2016) Long-run money demand redux. Working paper

    Google Scholar 

  • Berg C, Jonung L (1999) Pioneering price level targeting: the Swedish experience, 1931–1937. J Monet Econ 43:525–551

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernanke B (2002) Deflation: making sure “It” doesn’t happen here. Remarks before the National Economist Club, Washington, DC, 21 November 2002

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernanke B (2004) The great moderation. Speech at the Meeting of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC, February 20

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernanke B (2008) Outstanding issues in the analysis of inflation. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s 53rd Annual Conference, 9 June

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernanke B, Mishkin F (1992) Central Bank behavior and the strategy of monetary policy. In: Blanchard OJ, Fischer S (eds) NBER macroeconomics annual 1992, vol 7. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp 183–238

    Google Scholar 

  • Blanchard O, Simon J (2001) The long and large decline in U.S. output volatility. Brook Pap Econ Act 1:135–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bordo M (1981) The classical gold standard: some lessons for today. Econ Rev Fed Reserv Bank St Louis 63:2–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Bordo M (1999) The gold standard and related regimes: collected essays. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bordo M, Orphanides A (2013) The great inflation: the rebirth of modern central banking. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bordo M, Schwartz A (eds) (1984) A retrospective on the classical gold standard. Chicago University Press, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Bordo M, Siklos P (2016) Central Bank credibility: an historical and quantitative exploration. In: Bordo M, Eitrheim Ø, Flandreau M, Qvigstad J (eds) Central banks at a crossroads. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA, pp 62–144

    Google Scholar 

  • Bordo M, Siklos P (2018) Central Banks: evolution and innovation in historical perspective. NBER working paper 23847, to appear in Sveriges Riksbank 350 Years: a Central Bank in a World of Central Banks. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA, forthcoming

    Google Scholar 

  • Borio C, Erdem M, Filardo A, Hofmann B (2015) The costs of deflation: a historical perspective. BIS Q Rev 20:31–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Bresciani-Turroni C (1937) The economics of inflation: a study of currency depreciation in post-war Germany, 1914–1923. Allan & Unwin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Bruno M, Di Tella G, Dornbusch R, Fischer S (1988) Editors, inflation stabilization: the experiences of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Burdekin R (2008) China’s monetary challenges. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Burdekin R, Siklos P (2004) Editors, deflation: current and historical perspectives. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Cagan P (1956) The monetary dynamics of hyperinflation. In: Friedman M (ed) Studies in the quantity theory of money. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 25–117

    Google Scholar 

  • Capie F (1986) Conditions in which rapid inflation has appeared. Carnegie Rochester Conf Ser Public Policy 24:115–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charbonneau K, Evans A, Sarker S, Suchanek L (2017) Digitalization: a review of the literature. Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2017-20

    Google Scholar 

  • Ciccarelli M, Mojon B (2010) Global inflation. Rev Econ Stat 92:524–535

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Côté D, De Resende C (2008) Globalization and inflation: the role of China. Bank of Canada working paper 2008-12

    Google Scholar 

  • Debelle G, Lamont O (1997) Relative price variability and inflation: evidence from US cities. J Polit Econ 105:132–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diba B, Grossman H (1988a) Explosive rational bubbles in stock prices? Am Econ Rev 78:520–530

    Google Scholar 

  • Diba B, Grossman H (1988b) Rational inflationary bubbles. J Monet Econ 21:35–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dornbusch R, Fischer S (1986) Stopping hyperinflations past and present. Weltwirtschaftliches Arch 122:1–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eichengreen B (1992) Golden fetters. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle R, Granger C (1987) Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55:251–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans G (1991) Pitfalls in testing for explosive bubbles in asset prices. Am Econ Rev 81:922–930

    Google Scholar 

  • Fielding D, Mizen P (2000) Relative price variability and inflation in Europe. Economica 67:57–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flood R, Garber P (1980) Market fundamentals versus price-level bubbles: the first test. J Polit Econ 88:745–770

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frenkel J (1976) A monetary approach to the exchange rate: doctrinal aspects and empirical evidence. Scand J Econ 78:200–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frenkel J (1977) The forward exchange rate, expectations, and the demand for money: the German hyperinflation. Am Econ Rev 67:653–670

    Google Scholar 

  • Friedman M (1956) The quantity theory of money – a restatement. In: Friedman M (ed) Studies in the quantity theory of money. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 3–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Friedman M (1970) The counter-revolution in monetary theory. Institute of Economic Affairs, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Friedman B, Kuttner K (1992) Money, income, prices, and interest rates. Am Econ Rev 82:472–492

    Google Scholar 

  • Funke M, Hall S, Sola M (1994) Rational bubbles during Poland’s hyperinflation implications and empirical evidence. Eur Econ Rev 38:1257–1276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gorodnichenko Y, Tavalera O (2017) Price setting in online markets: basic facts, international comparisons, and cross-border integration. Am Econ Rev 107:249–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton E (1977) The role of war in modern inflation. J Econ Hist 37:13–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton J (1990) Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime. J Econ 45:39–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton J, Whiteman C (1985) The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations. J Monet Econ 11:247–260

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanke S, Bushnell C (2016) Venezuela enters the record book. The 57th Entry in the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table, working paper

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanke S, Krus N (2012) World hyperinflations. Working paper

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanke S, Kwok A (2009) On the measurement of Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation. Cato J 29:353–364

    Google Scholar 

  • Hercowitz Z (1981) Money and the dispersion of relative prices. J Polit Econ 89:328–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • James H (2016) Making the European monetary union. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaramillo C (1999) Inflation and relative price variability: reinstating parks’ results. J Money Credit Bank 31:375–385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johansen S (1988) Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. J Econ Dyn Control 12:231–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kamin S, Marazzi M, Schindler J (2004) Is China exporting deflation? International Finance Discussion Paper 791, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes J (1924) A tract on monetary reform. Macmillan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kindleberger C (1987) Marshall plan days. Allen & Unwin, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • King M (1997) The inflation target five years on. Speech at the London School of Economics, 29 October

    Google Scholar 

  • Konieczny J, Skrzypacz A (2005) Inflation and price setting in a natural experiment. J Monet Econ 52:621–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laidler D, Parkin M (1975) Inflation: a survey. Econ J 85:741–809

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lastrapes W (2006) Inflation and the distribution of relative prices: the role of productivity and money supply shocks. J Money Credit Bank 38:2159–2198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lucas R (1973) Some international evidence on output–inflation tradeoffs. Am Econ Rev 63:326–334

    Google Scholar 

  • Lucas R, Nicolini J (2015) On the stability of money demand. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis working paper 718, September

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahadeva L, Sterne G (2000) Monetary policy frameworks in a global context. Routledge, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Meltzer A (2009) Inflation nation. New York Times. May 4

    Google Scholar 

  • Morales J, Sachs J (1989) Bolivia’s economic crisis. In: Sachs J (ed) Developing country debt and economic performance. Country studies – Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico. NBER. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Muth J (1961) Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica 29:315–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nautz D, Scharff J (2012) Inflation and relative price variability in the euro area: evidence from a panel threshold model. Appl Econ 44:449–460

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pang K, Siklos P (2016) Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial Nexus: imbalances and spillovers between China and the US. J Int Money Financ 65:195–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parkin M (1980) Oil push inflation? Banca Nazionale Lav Rev 133:163–185

    Google Scholar 

  • Rotemberg J (1983) Aggregate consequences of fixed costs of price adjustment. Am Econ Rev 73:433–436

    Google Scholar 

  • Sargent T (1977) The demand for money during hyperinflation under rational expectations. Int Econ Rev 18:59–82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sargent T (1982) The ends of four big inflations. In: Hall R (ed) Inflation: causes and effects. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Sargent T, Wallace N (1973) Rational expectations and the dynamics of hyperinflation. Int Econ Rev 14:328–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheshinski E, Weiss Y (1977) Inflation and costs of price adjustment. Rev Econ Stud 44:287–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siklos P (1999) Inflation target design: changing inflation performance and persistence in industrial countries. Rev Fed Reserv Bank St Louis 81:47–58

    Google Scholar 

  • Siklos P (2013) Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: an international empirical investigation. J Int Econ 90:218–231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siklos P (2017) Central banks into the breach: from triumph to crisis and the road ahead. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Siklos P (2018) What has publishing inflation forecasts accomplished? Central Banks and their competitors. In: Mayes D, Siklos P, Sturm J-E (eds) Handbook of the economics of central banking. Oxford University Press, Oxford, forthcoming

    Google Scholar 

  • Siklos P, Barton A (2001) Monetary aggregates as indicators of economic activity in Canada: empirical evidence. Can J Econ 34:1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siklos P, Zhang Y (2010) Identifying the shocks driving inflation in China. Pac Econ Rev 15:204–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silver M, Ioannidis C (2001) Intercountry differences in the relationship between relative price variability and average prices. J Polit Econ 109:355–374

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svensson L (2009) Inflation targeting. In: Durlauf S, Blume L (eds) The new Palgrave dictionary of economics, 2nd edn. Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp 1237–1302

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor M (1991) The hyperinflation model of money demand revisited. J Money Credit Bank 23:327–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor J (1993) Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie Rochester Conf Ser Public Policy 39:195–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodford M (2003) Interest and prices. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Pierre L. Siklos .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this entry

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this entry

Siklos, P.L., Bohl, M.T. (2018). The Anatomy of Inflation: An Economic History Perspective. In: Battilossi, S., Cassis, Y., Yago, K. (eds) Handbook of the History of Money and Currency. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0622-7_35-1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0622-7_35-1

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-10-0622-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-10-0622-7

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Economics and FinanceReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Business, Economics and Social Sciences

Publish with us

Policies and ethics