Abstract
This chapter focuses on some macro-economic aspects of the images for the future. Long-term scenarios of economic development are frequently done using economic models. We intend to compare our future scenarios to economic scenarios that normally serve as a basis for various investigations and policy proposals.
We will compare the assumptions made in the different images of the future and discuss their impact on growth and other economic factors. One question posed is if the various assumptions in the images of the future hold water from an economic perspective. Another question is what happens in the economy if energy efficiency and energy prices change significantly. If the technological developments make energy cheaper, resources for increased consumption are created, which in turn may increase the environmental load. Given this, can lower energy prices, which may be a result of technology change in the images of the future, be compatible with sustainable development? On the other hand, if the environmentally adapted technology is expensive, causing the relative price on energy to rise steeply, is this only an inflationary effect in the economic perspective or does it constitute real economic growth?
Chapter written by Sofia Ahlroth.
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Notes
- 1.
See also Ahlroth, S. and Höjer, M., Sustainable energy prices, 2007.
- 2.
Swedish Government Official Reports, Effektiv användning av naturresurser (Effective use of natural resources), 2001, and Swedish Government Official Reports, Långtidsutredningen 1999/2000, 2000, Appendix 1.
- 3.
Actually in this context the interesting measurements are either the net national product (NNP) or if future environmental and welfare effects are desired, the environmentally adjusted net national product (ENP). The NNP corresponds to the GNP less capital wear, meaning the real income left after the resources utilized to restore the capital written off during the year has been deducted. Still, the distinction lacks significance in the discussion above. In the ENP adjustment has already been made for the wear on the natural capital.
(See Ahlroth, S., Green accounts for sulphur and nitrogen deposition in Sweden. Department of Forest Economics, Umeå, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2000, and Skånberg, K. Constructing a partially environmentally adjusted net national product for Sweden 1993 and 1997. Stockholm, National Institute of Economic Research, 2001). These measurements would even show the welfare changes provided by a sustainable development.
- 4.
This can be compared to the handling of environmental costs in the environmentally adjusted national accounts. How increased expenses for environmental protection should be booked is discussed in the new handbook for environmental accounts (Integrated environmental and economic accounting UN, 2003) where instead of counting environmental protection expenses as increased production costs, the possibility of counting the costs for those measures necessary to achieve a more effective energy extraction and use in commercial life as a part of building the gross capital formation. This would mean that it would be counted as a quality increase, not a cost rise, and consequently not produce an inflationary price (UN 2003). However, such a calculation would not affect the standard NNP measure, only the ENP. For a detailed presentation of the bookkeeping of environmental protection costs, see Steurer, A., et al. Environmental protection expenditure and its representation in national accounts, 1998.
- 5.
Alfredsson, E., Green consumption, energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, 2002.
- 6.
Bohm, P., Samhällsekonomisk effektivitet (National economy efficiency), Chap. 2.1, 1996.
- 7.
Swedish Government Official Reports, Skatter, löner och sysselsättning (Taxes, salaries and employment), 1996.
- 8.
Ahlroth 2000 and Skånberg 2001.
- 9.
Swedish Government Official Reports 2000.
- 10.
Swedish Government Official Reports 2001.
- 11.
Ibid., p. 130.
- 12.
Ibid., p. 133.
- 13.
Ibid., p. 133.
- 14.
Ibid., p. 208.
- 15.
Ibid., p. 210.
- 16.
Swedish Government Official Reports 2000, Appendix 1, Chap. 2.
- 17.
Ibid., Appendix 1.
- 18.
Jonung, C., Kvinnorna i svensk ekonomi (Women in the Swedish economy, 1982, p. 299.
- 19.
Swedish Government Official Reports 2000, Appendix 9, p. 4.
- 20.
Malmberg, B., Age structure effects on economic growth – Swedish evidence, 1994 and Lindh, T. and Malmberg, B., Age structure effects and growth in the OECD 1950–1990, 1999.
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Höjer, M., Gullberg, A., Pettersson, R. (2011). Images of the Future from a National Economic Perspective. In: Images of the Future City. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0653-8_30
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