Abstract
There are three basically different categories of future studies, each answering different types of questions. These are the Predictive (What will happen?), the Explorative (What could happen?) and the Normative (How can a certain goal be attained?).
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Notes
- 1.
Börjeson, L. et al. “Scenario types and techniques”, 2006.
- 2.
Ibid.
- 3.
Höjer, M. What is the point of IT? 2000a and Dreborg, K. H. Scenarios and structural uncertainty, 2004.
- 4.
Johansson, T. B. et al. “Sweden beyond oil: the efficient use of energy”, 1983; Kaijser, A. et al. Changing direction: energy policy and new technology, 1991; Lönnroth, M. et al. Solar versus nuclear, 1980; Robinson, J. B. “Energy backcasting”, 1982 and Steen, P. et al. Energi – till vad och hur mycket (Energy – for what and how much?), 1981.
- 5.
På väg mot ett miljöanpassat transportsystem (Towards an environmentally adapted transport system), 1996; Transport and environment, 1999; Steen, P. et al. Färder i framtiden (Journeys in the future), 1997; Åkerman, J. et al. Destination framtiden (Destination future), 2000; Metz et al. “Climate options for the long term”, 2003; Åkerman, J. and Höjer, M. How much transport can the climate stand?, 2006.
- 6.
Similar versions of backcasting have been described in Dreborg (2004) and Höjer, M. and Mattsson, L. G. “Determinism and backcasting in futures studies”, 2000.
- 7.
See Daly, H. Beyond growth, 1996, for an in-depth argument for this perspective.
- 8.
The approach is discussed in Dreborg, K. H. “Essence of backcasting”, 1996; Höjer, M. Telecommunicators in the multinuclear city, 2000b; Robinson, J. B. “Futures under glass”, 1990; Quist, J. and Vergragt, P. Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework, 2006.
- 9.
Greater Stockholm comprises Stockholm County except for Norrtälje, Nynäshamn, Södertälje and Nykvarn municipalities.
- 10.
Pettersson, R. (ed). Bekvämlighetsrevolutionen (The convenience revolution), 2008.
- 11.
Office of Regional Planning and Urban Transportation, 2008, 2009.
- 12.
Refer to Långtidsutredningen (The Swedish longitudinal survey) 1999/2000, 2000.
- 13.
Gershuny, J. Social innovation and the division of labour, 1983.
- 14.
De Vries, J. “The industrial revolution and the industrious revolution”, 1994.
- 15.
Gershuny (1983), pp. 1f, 67ff divides the household service functions into ten categories: “Food, shelter, domestic services, entertainment, transport, medicine, education, and, more distantly, government services, ‘law and order’ and defense”. These ten are taken from the European System of National Accounts. In the categories we have developed we have removed the transport segment, as this function most frequently serves as a means for satisfying other functions, allocating it instead to the other functions based on the purpose of the trip. The other Gershuny categories have in some cases been combined in order to facilitate the analysis. The Support category has been added.
- 16.
Gershuny, J. och Miles, I. The new service economy, 1983, pp. 89ff.
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Höjer, M., Gullberg, A., Pettersson, R. (2011). Limitations and Necessities. In: Images of the Future City. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0653-8_2
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