Abstract
Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the one-time oil minister, famously quipped that the Stone Age didn’t end because of a shortage of stone, meaning that the oil age, and certainly Saudi’s privileged position because of oil, will not end because of a shortage of oil but because of other factors (Quoted in Lippman, Saudi Arabia on the edge: the uncertain future of an American ally. Potomac Books, Dulles, 2012, p. 38). Concerns about 2030, and if not the end of the oil age at least a more competitive economic environment, are creating a dynamic of economic tension that will increasingly pervade government and society. To change requires a more international outlook, but does it mean Saudi needs to become more Western? Less Islamic? Saudi Arabia is attempting to establish a modern business culture while grappling with globalization’s challenges to Islamic teaching and social welfare values. Saudi political and business leaders are acutely aware that the Saudi economy needs, on the one hand, to diversify, while on the other needs to become more self-reliant, in terms of skills and resources. As a wealth creation resource, oil was found and extracted by foreigners. My reason for emphasizing this is that the Saudis basically had oil-based wealth handed to them on a platter. Compared to America, the nation that collaborated with the kingdom to create this oil-based economy, Saudis never developed a sense of pioneering for wealth or belief in the manifest destiny of national growth, and there was no Protestant work ethic. They have long relied on expat expertise and management, and it is only comparatively recently they have sought increased self-reliance. It is this conundrum of oil and the wealth curse, with the manner of welfare provision in Saudi, that goes to the heart of the needed change, and is responsible for the economic behaviors which go back to the first days of oil. The history of oil is inextricably bound with a political history of Saudi dominated by the relationship between America and Saudi to create the kind of economy Saudi has grown up with and still exists today.
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- 1.
Quoted in Lippman (2012, p. 38).
- 2.
- 3.
- 4.
- 5.
- 6.
Judis (2014).
- 7.
Ibid, p. 3.
- 8.
Beisner (2009, p. 536).
- 9.
- 10.
- 11.
Ibid.
- 12.
Kerr (1965).
- 13.
Speech by Senator John F. Kennedy, Zionists of America Convention, Statler Hilton Hotel, New York, NY, August 26, 1960 ref. Also, see https://www.jfklibrary.org/Research/Research-Aids/JFK-Speeches/United-States-Senate-Military-Power_19580814.aspx, https://www.jfklibrary.org/Asset-Viewer/Archives/JFKCAMP1960-1030-015.aspx
- 14.
- 15.
Khalidi (2009, p. 19).
- 16.
Johnson Library, National Security File, Special Head of State Correspondence File, Saudi Arabia, Presidential Correspondence. Secret. Transmitted to Jidda in telegram 559, April 27. (National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, Central Files 1964–66, POL 15-1 US/Johnson).
- 17.
DEFCON is the threat level assessment used by the US military. The lower the number, the higher the perceived threat. DEFCON 5 is peacetime, while DEFCON 1 is imminent war. Raising the DEFCON level activates a prescribed set of actions. DEFCON 3 puts military and government on a level of preparedness including evacuation of personnel, and is as close to a war footing without engaging in full combat.
- 18.
Box 4, folder “Saudi Arabia - King Faisal” of the National Security Adviser’s Presidential Correspondence with Foreign Leaders Collection at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/document/0351/1555849.pdf
- 19.
Ibid.
- 20.
Little (2008).
- 21.
Mattson, Kevin What the Heck Are You Up To, Mr. President? (Bloomsbury: New York, 2010) p. 16.
- 22.
By “pursuing a carefully balanced policy of trying not to antagonize any party in the Arab world. For instance, it provides aid to the Palestinians and to the conservative monarchy in Jordan . It maintains influence in most Arab capitals regardless of their ideology or orientation. Joining the peace talks would indicate that the Saudis had taken sides. This would not only anger and alienate such radical regimes as Syria , Iraq , Libya, Algeria and the Palestinians, but might also result in serious military and security problems. Saudi Arabia is no match for countries like Syria or Iraq . In addition, it has a large Palestinian presence in the form of refugees employed in the oil fields and in other positions, both managerial and blue collar. Thus, by joining the peace talks, Saudi Arabia would be taking a considerable risk. Moreover, the immediate benefits in doing so are not yet clear.” David Aviel, Economic Implications of the Peace Treaty between Egypt and Israel, 12 Case W. Res. J. Int’l L. 57 (1980) Available at: http://scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/jil/vol12/iss1/4
- 23.
Ronald Reagan : “Toasts at the State Dinner for King Fahd bin ‘Abd al-‘Aziz Al Sa’ud of Saudi Arabia,” February 11, 1985. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=38210
- 24.
- 25.
The quotes and narrative is based on a report from the LA Times, http://articles.latimes.com/1985-02-11/news/mn-4280_1_king-fahd
- 26.
- 27.
- 28.
- 29.
- 30.
- 31.
- 32.
- 33.
Hegghammer, Thomas The Failure of jihad in Saudi Arabia, 2010 https://ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-failure-of-jihad-in-saudi-arabia
- 34.
- 35.
These pages were subsequently released by the Obama administration in 2016, and welcomed by Saudi. “This information does not change the assessment of the US government that there’s no evidence that the Saudi government or senior Saudi individuals funded al-Qaida,” Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, stated. However, it did not succeed in ending the speculation. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/15/911-report-saudi-arabia-28-pages-released
- 36.
- 37.
- 38.
- 39.
- 40.
- 41.
Ibid.
- 42.
- 43.
- 44.
- 45.
- 46.
- 47.
- 48.
- 49.
- 50.
- 51.
- 52.
Bronson (2006, p. 9).
- 53.
Khalidi (2009, p. 20).
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Cowan, D. (2018). Oil Dependency and Cold War Politics. In: The Coming Economic Implosion of Saudi Arabia. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74709-5_5
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