Abstract
European citizens will be worse off if the EU crumbles. It will first impact economic growth, then collective security. Before this comes to pass, Europe should get a second chance to fix the fault lines beneath the EU’s foundations. But what are these fault lines that are causing it to crumble?
In many countries, there is public distrust—even disgust—with “Brussels”, particularly among the losers of globalisation. Then there is the fault line between the east and west, whereby some Eastern EU countries have reneged on their commitments to “good governance”.
Immigration is another cause for concern, particularly in the south and northwest of Europe, which is testing European cooperation to the limits. Then we have the Euro, which is simply not sustainable given the long-run divergence in economic growth between the north and the south. Finally, without an agreed second language, communication in the EU remains awkward and stilted.
The EU built on the Maastricht and Lisbon Treaty needs an overhaul to make it more earthquake proof. This means strengthening existing structures and possibly abandoning parts of the building—leaving an EU hard-core, with associate members joining some, but not all, EU programmes.
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Notes
- 1.
The European Commission (2016) underlines the need for reform 60 years after the Treaties of Rome and seeks therefore a White Paper on the Future of Europe (to be completed in 2017).
- 2.
Or in negotiating with the “US- first”.
- 3.
The EU has a Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), which includes countries without ties to NATO.
- 4.
- 5.
Brexit discussions should leave room for the UK to be part of this European defence structure, even though the UK has in the recent past strongly objected to a joint army as a potential drain on NATO resources and as giving rise to “too many headquarters” (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-defence-idUSKCN11X00G).
- 6.
See also: Rodrik (2011) who early on pleaded for “customised” globalisation.
- 7.
But with substantial differences between countries.
- 8.
If measured by a positive answer on the question: Is your country’s membership of the EU a good thing?
- 9.
Answer to the question: “What are your expectations for the financial situation of your household for the next 12 months: better/worse or the same?”
- 10.
The Lisbon Declaration of 2000 foresaw this common future in innovation as a prerequisite to make the EU the most competitive region of the world. However this declaration was never implemented.
- 11.
Some 90% of immigrants to the EU in 2000–2010 arrived through regular channels.
- 12.
- 13.
The European Commission has to decide whether to apply a sanction in case a country breaks the rules.
- 14.
One part of the Five Presidents Report has been worked into a “Roadmap for the Banking union”. This has an official status, as there are conclusions from the European Council. See: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/06/17-conclusions-on-banking-union/
- 15.
- 16.
- 17.
The European Commission has promised to deliver a “white paper” on the future of Europe by March 2017 (at the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome).
- 18.
To put it cynically, this is in the “best” traditions of the EU: there is no EU strong power position: the power remains with the member states.
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Ritzen, J. (2017). Forward to a Second Chance for Europe. In: Ritzen, J. (eds) A Second Chance for Europe. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57723-4_9
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