Questions on Uncertain, Possible, and Probable

Abstract

In plain language, the predicative words “possible” and “probable” are often used synonymously, but without argument for it, and what seems more suitable is to say of something probable that it is possible, but not reciprocally. In language, “possible” seems to be more largely applicable than “probable”. For instance, if when throwing a single die it is probable to get five points, it is clear that it can be expected because this output is among “those that are possible”; obtaining eleven points is not possible, and consequently there is no sense in attributing to it the property of being probable. In addition, there are also life’s ordinary situations linguistically qualified as “possible but not probable”, even if they can actually have a very small probability. For instance, it is possible that in a few minutes my old friend John, 10 years older than I am, and from whom I have heard nothing in the last 10 years, can call me by phone, but it deserves to be qualified as something improbable or, at most and if John is still alive, with a very small probability provided it could be effectively computed.