Possible Resource Restrictions for the Future Large-Scale Production of Electric Cars

Abstract

This contribution reveals that the supply of critical raw materials is not primarily a problem of future electric car manufacturing, rather a general strategic problem for the (high) technology sector in some industrialized countries. Although a temporary supply bottleneck for raw materials cannot be excluded when the mass production of electric cars starts within the next decade, in the long-term fundamental supply risks are unlikely.

In the medium-term, there is no alternative to Lithium as electrochemically active component in batteries for high performance electric cars; however, there are chemical alternatives in the long-term. The demand for Lithium calculated for the future beyond 2030 thus is highly uncertain. Higher prices for Lithium salts are expected, but raw materials represent only a small share of Lithium-ion battery production costs. Additionally, the size of an average Lithium-ion battery was overestimated in recent leading future scenarios.

The current slightly critical supply situation for rare earth elements is expected to change in the medium-term since new production sites will be opened and electric motors free of rare earth elements are already available or are currently being developed.