Abstract
Probabilities measure the chance an event will occur. In risk assessments and project evaluations we are not dealing with absolute probabilities, but with relative probabilities (within a portfolio) over a specific time. Generally the time is one year and we use therefore annual probabilities. Do not confuse annual probabilities and frequencies which measure average number of occurrence over a certain time interval. The confusion comes from the fact that the number expressing probability and frequency is very similar, once it goes below say 1/10. Hence a probability of 1/10 has the same number—0.1—as a frequency of 1/10, but they do not mean at all the same conceptually.
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- 1.
The term “uninformative” is common but misleading, as the simple knowledge or estimate of min-max already constitutes a very valuable piece of information.
- 2.
Because the credibility threshold may not be properly defined and people tend to instinctively place it orders of magnitude higher than the technical definition.
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Oboni, F., Oboni, C. (2020). Defining Probabilities of Events. In: Tailings Dam Management for the Twenty-First Century. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19447-5_10
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