Convective Scale Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

Convective storms play an importannt role in meterology. In general, the development of a convective storm array depends on the interaction of meteorological fields ranging from the synoptic-scale cyclone to the cloud condensation nucleus (Lilly, 1977). Little is known about why a particular storm forms and develops, or why a convective array behaves in a particular manner. Simpson and Dennis (1974) pointed out that more is known about synoptic-scale conditions and cloud microphysics favorable for convective development than is known about the mesoscale. The lack of information on the interaction between convective clouds and their mesoscale environment is mainly attributable to a gap in the meteorological observing capability that existed prior to high resolution geostationary satellite observations (Purdom, 1976). At the earlier time, meteorologists were forced to infer, rather thhan directly observe, most mesoscale processes. The cloud patterns in VIS and IR satellite images may be considered visualizations of mesoscale processes. When animated imagery is examined, the orientation, development, movement, and behavior of important mesoscale features can be seen.