Abstract
The economy is often faced with a turn that is not to our liking, and we sometimes think it ought to be controllable by macroeconomic policy. While the spectrum of policies ranges from Keynesian “fine tuning” to using monetarist “rules,” every action (or inaction) of the government is a policy. Because of this it is important that government policy makers be guided by appropriate empirical models. Unfortunately, there is considerable variation in the large numbers of econometric models that have been developed thus far. Moreover, there are persistent problems, both technical and theoretical, with these models.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Bibliography
Anderson LC, Jordan JL (1968) Monetary and fiscal action: a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, Nov 1968
Cuthbertson K (1979) Macroeconomic policy: the new Cambridge, Keynesian and monetarist controversies. Wiley, New York
Harker PT (1987) Alternative modes of questioning in the analytic hierarchy process. Math Model 9(3–5):353–360
Hildreth C, Houck J (1968) Some estimators for a linear model with random coefficients. J Am Stat Assoc 63:584–595
Lucas RE (1976) Econometric policy evaluation: a critique, in the Phillips curve and labor markets. In: Brunner K, Meltzer AH (eds) The Carnegie-Rochester con-ferences on public policy, vol 1. North-Holland, Amsterdam, p 20
Maddala GS (1977) Econometrics. McGraw Hill International, New York
Saaty TL (1980) The analytic hierarchy process. McGraw Hill International, New York
Saaty TL (1987) A new macroeconomic forecasting and policy evaluation method using the analytic hierarchy process. Math Model 9(3–5):219–232
Sargent TJ (1981) Interpreting economic time series. J Political Economy 89(2):213–248
Sims CA (1980) Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica 48(1):1–48
Zahedi F (1986) The analytic hierarchy process—A survey of the method and its applications. Interfaces 16(4):96–108
Zarnowitz V (1978) On the accuracy and properties of recent macroeconomic forecasts. Am Econ Rev 68(2):313–321
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Saaty, T.L., Vargas, L.G. (2012). A New Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Evaluation Method. In: Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 175. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-3597-6_14
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-3597-6_14
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-3596-9
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-3597-6
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsBusiness and Management (R0)