Skip to main content

Geography of Risk

  • Chapter
  • 555 Accesses

Abstract

Human populations have a tendency to sprawl. Just look out the plane window as you leave any airport and you will likely see a city blending with agricultural fields for miles. With the aid of satellite imagery, this pattern can be witnessed on a global scale, revealing that urban and agricultural areas now make up over 40 percent of the Earth’s land surface. Sprawl is also a critical issue for the energy sector. Energy sprawl is the product of the amount of energy produced and the land-use intensity of production. Production is the terawatt hours per year of energy and intensity is the square kilometers of habitat given over to that production.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Notes

  1. 1.

    Roger Hooke and José Martin-Duque, “Land Transformation by Humans: A Review,” GSA Today 22, no. 12 (2012): 4–10, doi:10.1130/GSAT151A.1; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, 2014, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf; Karen Seto, Burak Güneralp, and Lucy Hutyra, “Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109, no. 40 (2012): 16083–88, doi:10.1073/pnas.1211658109.

  2. 2.

    UN, “World Urbanization Prospects.”

  3. 3.

    Seto et al., “Global Forecasts of Urban”; Patrick Gerland, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Ševčíková, Nan Li, Danan Gu, Thomas Spoorenberg, Leontine Alkema, Bailey Fosdick, Jennifer Chunn, Nevena Lalic, Guiomar Bay, Thomas Buettner, Gerhard Heilig, John Wilmoth, “World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century,” Science 346, no. 6206 (2014): 234–37, doi:10.1126/science.1257469; Felix Creutzig, Giovanni Baiocchi, Robert Bierkandt, Peter-Paul Pichler, and Karen Seto, “Global Typology of Urban Energy Use and Potentials for an Urbanization Mitigation Wedge,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112, no. 20 (2015): 6283–88, doi:10.1073/pnas.1315545112; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2015, Nov. 10, 2015, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/weo2015/; Guangnan Chen, Gary Sandell, and Craig Baillie, “Improving Energy Efficiency in Agriculture,” National Centre for Engineering in Agriculture, University of Southern Queensland, 2014.

  4. 4.

    Robert McDonald, Joseph Fargione, Joseph Kiesecker, William Miller, and Jimmie Powell, “Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the United States of America,” PLoS ONE 4 no. 8 (2009), doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0006802; Anna Trainor, Robert Mcdonald, and Joseph Fargione, “Energy Sprawl Is the Largest Driver of Land Use Change in United States,” PLoS One 11 no. 9 (2016), doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0162269.

  5. 5.

    Joseph Kiesecker, Holly Copeland, Amy Pocewicz, and Bruce McKenney, “Development by Design: Blending Landscape-Level Planning with the Mitigation Hierarchy,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8, no. 5 (2010): 261–66, doi:10.1890/090005.

  6. 6.

    James Oakleaf, Christina Kennedy, Sharon Baruch-Mordo, Paul West, James Gerber, Larissa Jarvis, and Joseph Kiesecker, “A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion,” PLoS One 10, no.10 (2015), doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138334.

  7. 7.

    Ibid.

  8. 8.

    U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics: Reserves of Oil and Natural Gas for 2012, Nov. 2015, http://www.eia.gov.

  9. 9.

    U.S. Geological Survey, Supporting Data for the U.S. Geological Survey 2012 World Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources, U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team, Nov. 1, 2013, http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-069-ff/.

  10. 10.

    U.S. Energy Information Administration, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States,” Sept. 24, 2015, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf.

  11. 11.

    U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics: Reserves of Oil and Natural Gas for 2012, Nov. 2015. http://www.eia.gov.

  12. 12.

    IEA, “World Energy Outlook 2015.”

  13. 13.

    Ibid.

  14. 14.

    McDonald et al., “Energy Sprawl”; Trainor et al., “Energy Sprawl.”

  15. 15.

    “Coal Reserves, International Energy Statistics,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, accessed January 15, 2014, http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=1&pid=7&aid=6.

  16. 16.

    United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook 2013, Feb. 2016.

  17. 17.

    Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Solar Power factsheet, 2012, http://www.c2es.org/technology/factsheet/solar.

  18. 18.

    United Nations, Total Solar Electricity Production by Country, 2012, http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=solar&d=EDATA&f=cmID%3aES; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Solar, Tide and Wave Electricty Generation by Country, 2012, http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=6&pid=36&aid=12&cid=regions&syid=2010&eyid=2010&unit=BKWH.

  19. 19.

    World Wind Energy Association, World Wind Energy—Statistics, 2014, http://www.wwindea.org/home/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=21&Itemid=43.

  20. 20.

    Trainor et al., “Energy Sprawl.”

  21. 21.

    Stuart Chape, Jeremy Harrison, Mark Spalding, and Igor Lysenko, “Measuring the Extent and Effectiveness of Protected Areas as an Indicator for Meeting Global Biodiversity Targets,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360, no. 1454 (2005): 443–55, doi:10.1098/rstb.2004.1592; Lucas Joppa and Alexander Pfaff, “Reassessing the Forest Impacts of Protection: The Challenge of Nonrandom Location and a Corrective Method,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1185 (2010): 135–49, doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05162.x.

  22. 22.

    Bruce McKenney and Joseph Kiesecker, “Policy Development for Biodiversity Offsets: A Review of Offset Frameworks, Enviromental Mangement 45, no. 1 (2009): 165–67, doi:10.1007/s00267-009-9396-3.

  23. 23.

    Jessica Wilkinson, James McElfish Jr., Rebecca Kihslinger, Robert Bendick, and Bruce McKenney, “The Next Generation of Mitigation: Linking Current and Future Mitigation Programs with State Wildlife Action Plans and Other State and Regional Plans,” Environmental Law Institute white paper, Aug. 2009.

  24. 24.

    McDonald et al., “Energy Sprawl”; Shirley Saenz, Tomas Walschburger, Juan Carlos González, Jorge León, Bruce McKenney, and Joseph Kiesecker, “Development by Design in Colombia: Making Mitigation Decisions Consistent with Conservation Outcomes, PLoS One 8, no. 12 (2013), doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081831.

  25. 25.

    McKenney and Kiesecker, “Policy Development.”

  26. 26.

    Joseph Kiesecker, Holly Copeland, Amy Pocewicz, Nate Nibbelink, Bruce McKenney, John Dahlke, Matt Holloran, and Dan Stroud, “A Framework for Implementing Biodiversity Offsets: Selecting Sites and Determining Scale,” Bioscience 59, no. 1 (2009): 77–84, doi:10.1525/bio.2009.59.1.11.

Acknowledgments

We thank Paul C. West and James S. Gerber (Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota), Navin Ramankutty (Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia), and Larissa Jarvis and Dany Plouffe (Land Use and Global Environment Research Group, McGill University) for providing technical assistance on agricultural and biofuel expansion threats; Bennett Holiday, Bob Barnes, and Bryan Woodman for helpful discussions; and all the data providers who publically provide their data, thus enabling research like ours. Funding for our analysis was provided by The Nature Conservancy, Anne Ray Charitable Trust, and The Robertson Foundation.

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 The Nature Conservancy

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Oakleaf, J., Kennedy, C.M., Baruch-Mordo, S., Kiesecker, J.M. (2017). Geography of Risk. In: Kiesecker, J.M., Naugle, D.E. (eds) Energy Sprawl Solutions. Island Press, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-723-0_1

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics