Crisis Deferred: An Operational Code Analysis of Chinese Leaders Across the Strait

Abstract

With increasing tensions over the Taiwan Strait after the reelection victory of the independence-oriented, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Chen Shuibian, speculations and concerns over the future of Taiwan and Sino-American relations have intensified. Will China use force against Taiwan? A crucial related question is what should the United States do? The implications of a Taiwan Strait conflict for the United States are complicated and far-reaching. Discussions have focused on what strategies the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will adopt to overcome the defense of Taiwan and avoid direct counterforce by the United States. The Taiwanese are debating whether Taiwan should get more offensive weapons systems.