Conclusions

Abstract

The examples discussed in the preceding pages demonstrate that the primary concern of U.S. decisionmakers in the 1990s who were faced with separatism was regional stability. Relationships with allied countries, which effectively bolstered the primary objective, came next, and fear of demonstration effects and lobbying by ethnic groups had marginal to no impact. Whether the decision is to support a secessionist group, to withhold support, or even to oppose it, in the first order U.S. policymakers will scrutinize the potential impact on geostrategic interests. Since allied states and expanding conflict have the most immediate potential negative or positive impact on U.S. interests, these factors are most significant. The ramifications of a potential demonstration effect or pressures exerted by lobby groups, are of less immediate or direct concern and are not generally decisive.