Are Elites Influenced by Foreign Analogies?

Abstract

This chapter employs statistical analysis of individual-level data to begin to assess the seven hypotheses developed in chapter 3. The intention is to present an initial evaluation of my theory of imitation in foreign policy using pooled data from Ukrainian and Russian elites. I do find preliminary support for most of the hypotheses. In particular, the analysis here shows that subjective failure is strongly associated with attention to foreign success, and that lessons from vicariously observed experience are strongly related to foreign policy preferences. I also take a close look at a few of the individuals, analogies, and issues behind the data. First, evidence directly testing hypotheses H1–H7 is examined. Second, further investigation of the evidence relating to imitation is presented. And finally, I discuss possible alternative explanations for the results and summarize the findings.

Why should what has happened to the decision maker and his state be so much more relevant than the fates of others?

—Robert Jervis (1976, 281)