Accounting for Militarized Interstate Disputes

Abstract

This chapter consists of three sections, the first two of which convey the results of data analysis in accounting for MID involvement, and the third provides a case study. The first section presents a series of logistic regression models that preserve continuity with the general approach taken in the field. The second section follows up on the potentially pathbreaking method put forward by Beck et al. (2000) with respect to the application of neural networks to the study of international conflict, crisis, and war. Taken together, the empirical results from the two sections of the analysis should provide a good sense of whether civil-military dynamics and political communications are relevant to the new quest for international peace. The third and final section of this chapter addresses the most persistent anomaly in the findings, namely, the apparent connection of diplomatic channels with MID involvement. The role of diplomacy is reassessed through a contemporary case: the interactions of the United States with North Korea over the latter’s nuclear program during the first term of President George W. Bush.