Unfolding Scenarios

Abstract

Scenarios are simplified representations of reality. This simplification becomes evident when scenarios are applied to complex systems characterized by a high degree of instability and sensitivity to exogenous variables. The simultaneous ongoing trade negotiations involving Latin American and Caribbean countries at the multilateral, hemispheric and sub-regional level interact in a complex web of uncertainty. Complementary and competitive relationships subject each individual process and the collective outcome to vast indefinite- ness. The scenarios developed in this chapter map out paths for the negotiations, leading to a synthesis of the possible paths regionalism could take in the hemisphere. The design of unfolding scenarios for the region as a whole does not mean to suggest Latin American and Caribbean countries have convergent interests. In fact, as Abreu points out in Chapter 1, the Latin American and Caribbean common trade agenda is quite restricted.