The Paths to the 2016 Republican Nomination

Abstract

In this chapter, we develop the concept of early primaries and caucuses as “knockout rounds” These first contests in the process not only bestow momentum, they also crown the champions of the various factions within the Republican Party. Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, for example, did not benefit from winning Iowa simply because they outperformed media expectations. They also benefited because they won Iowa by successfully courting conservative evangelicals—and thus became the national champion of that faction the day after Iowa. In similar fashion, John McCain and Mitt Romney gained from winning New Hampshire by earning the allegiance of moderate and liberal Republicans seeking a champion. After the knockout rounds, surviving candidates seek to build a coalition of voters from other factions.