Skip to main content

Learning, Expectations, and the Financial Instability Hypothesis

  • Chapter
Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics

Part of the book series: International Economic Association Series ((IEA))

  • 937 Accesses

Abstract

Expectations matter. Many economic and financial decisions depend on the perception of future incomes and prices. The evolution of expectations, and how correct they are over time, determines the stability of the system.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Aguiar, M. and G. Gopinath (2007) “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 115, pp. 69–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boz, E., C. Daude, and C. Bora Durdu (2011) “Emerging Market Business Cycles: Learning About the Trend,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 58, pp. 616–631.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clower, Robert W. (1965) “The Keynesian Counterrevolution: a Theoretical Appraisal,” The Theory of Interest Rates, vol. 103, 125.

    Google Scholar 

  • Delli Gatti, Domenico, Mauro Gallegati, Bruce Greenwald, Alberto Russo, and Joseph E. Stiglitz (2010) “The Financial Accelerator in an Evolving Credit Network,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 34, No. 9, pp. 1627–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gai, Prasanna, Andrew Haldane, and Sujit Kapadia (2011) “Complexity, Concentration and Contagion,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 58, no. 5, pp. 453–70.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geanakoplos, John, Robert Axtell, Doyne J. Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, Matthew Hendrey, Nathan M. Palmer, and Chun-Yi Yang (2012) “Getting at Systemic Risk via an Agent-based model of the Housing Market,” The American Economic Review, vol. 102, no. 3, pp. 53–8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gluzmann, Pablo, Martin Guzman, and Peter Howitt (2014) “Stability of Expectations and Severity of Crises,” Paper presented at the IEA World Congress, June 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guzman, Martin (2013) “Understanding the Causes and Effects of Financial Crises,” Brown University, Doctoral Dissertation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guzman, Martin (2014) “Understanding the Relationship between Output growth Expectations and Financial Crises,” Columbia University Initiative for Policy Dialogue Working Paper.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guzman, Martin and Joseph E. Stiglitz (2014) “Pseudo-wealth and Consumption Fluctuations,” Columbia University Working Paper.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guzman, Martin and Joseph E. Stiglitz (2015) “Pseudo-wealth Fluctuations and Aggregate Demand Effects,” Columbia University Working Paper.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heymann, Daniel (2009) “Macroeconomics of Broken Promises,” in Macroeconomics in the Small and the Large: Essays on Microfoundations, Macroeconomic Applications and Economic History in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud. Northampton MA: Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heymann, Daniel, and Axel Leijonhufvud. High Inflation: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures. Oxford University Press (1995).

    Google Scholar 

  • Howitt, Peter (1978) “The Limits to Stability of a Full-employment Equilibrium,” The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, pp. 265–282.

    Google Scholar 

  • Howitt, Peter (2011) “Learning, Leverage, and Stability,” Brown University Working Paper.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, John Maynard (1936) General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kindleberger, Charles (1978) Manias, Panics, and Crashes. New York. Basic Books.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Korinek, Anton (2011) “The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda,” IMF Economic Review, vol. 59, no. 3, pp. 523–561.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leijonhufvud, Axel (1968) On Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes, Vol. 158. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leijonhufvud, Axel (1973) “Effective Demand Failures,” The Swedish Journal of Economics, 27–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leijonhufvud, Axel (1981) Information and Coordination: Essays in Macroeconomic Theory. Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marcet, Albert and Juan Pablo Nicolini (2003) “Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning,” The American Economic Review, vol. 93, no. 5, pp. 1476–98.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milani, F. (2007) “Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 54, pp. 2065–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minsky, Hyman (1975) John Maynard Keynes. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Minsky, Hyman (1986) Stabilizing An Unstable Economy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Minsky, Hyman (1992) “The Financial Instability Hypothesis,” The Levy Institute Working Paper No. 74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pintus, Patrick A., and Yi Wen (2013) “Leveraged Borrowing and Boom-bust Cycles,” Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 617–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sargent, Thomas (1993) Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schumpeter, Joseph (1934) Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Copyright information

© 2016 Martin Guzman and Peter Howitt

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Guzman, M., Howitt, P. (2016). Learning, Expectations, and the Financial Instability Hypothesis. In: Stiglitz, J.E., Guzman, M. (eds) Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137529589_7

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics