Future Pessimistic Scenarios

Abstract

The danger today is not so much a “clash of civilizations,” but the rise of differing forms of revanchist movements that claim that they want to return the state and society to something closer to a previous period of perceived grandeur, status, and influence that it once ostensibly possessed. These pan- or macromovements, which may initially be initiated by small bands of individuals before they gain greater popular strength, often manipulate religious, civilizational, and other social values in their efforts to achieve their generally dystopian goals, which generally include border revisions. Rather than teaching mutual respect and power sharing, these groups assert the superiority of their cause, values, and beliefs over those of other social or religious communities, or even over those within the same religion or civilization, and seek to play on existing social and ethnic tensions that are often masked beneath ostensibly peaceful coexistence between differing social groups.