The Rising Cost of Russia’s Authoritarian Foreign Policy

Abstract

The swift military annexation of Crimea in March 2014 has raised numerous questions and revived many myths about Russia’s imperial identity and ambitions. It has been too hastily interpreted as a sign of Soviet-style imperial revival in continuity of tsarist rule. If this was Russia’s motivation, the Ukraine adventure was no success. Moscow stepped back from annexing Ukraine’s eastern provinces and had to recognize the legitimacy of elected President Petro Poroshenko and agree to negotiate with him. The downing of the Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 by pro-Moscow combatants with a Russian surface-to-air SA 11 missile on 17 July 2014, which killed 298 people, provoked world outrage and sharpened sanctions against Russia, which now sees its international reputation and its economic prospects seriously damaged. The new Ukrainian authorities, on the other hand, have capitalized on Russia’s seizure of Crimea and support of armed subversion in the eastern provinces to accelerate the rapprochement with western Europe.