Blueprint for the Future

Abstract

With the exception of soothsayers, nobody is expected to provide as much news about the future as economists. This is even more surprising considering that hardly anyone is so often wrong not only about the present, but also about the past, which they sometimes fail to see clearly as well. If a fortune-teller misreads what’s written in the coffee grounds, she may lose a customer. Economists never do. Although they cannot agree about the causes of the Great Depression of 1929–33, they are still asked about the crisis of 2008–13. While it would seem that at the time of an extensive crisis the focus is on the present, they are constantly posed questions about the future. And if nobody asks them, they take a stance anyway. No matter how many errors they have committed in the hypotheses, conclusions and theories they put forward, they can aptly create a never-ending demand for their services. Since we can’t get rid of economists, we should use them for the sake of the cause.