Abstract
Perception is a key variable in neoclassical realist accounts of foreign policy and tends to be viewed in two ways: perceptions of threat and perceptions of power. Rose traces this to the “third wave” of works in neoclassical realism (NCR), with the first and second waves focusing on shifts in the relative power of different states and the third and follow- ing waves moving more toward studies of the interactions of shifts in power and perceptions of power and threat.1 Regarding the third wave, Wohlforth, for instance, discusses the role of perceptions of relative power in Soviet foreign policymaking in the final stages of the Cold War.2 The other major theme is that of the perception of threat held by policymak- ers. According to neoclassical realists, this conditions how they respond to threats and what threats they respond to. Like Wohlforth, Schweller argues that policymakers’ perceptions of the international environment and the balance of power are important variables and to an extent explain why states sometimes fail to respond forcefully to threats.3 This theme is further explored by Steven Lobell, who creates an intricate model of threat identification by elites within states across international, regional, and domestic levels.4
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Notes
Gideon Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy,” World Politics 51, no. 1 (1998): 144–72. For a comprehensive list, see Amelia Hadfield-Amkhan, British Foreign Policy, National Identity, and Neoclassical Realism (Plymouth: Rowman and Littlefield, 2010), Chapter 2, note 28.
William Wohlforth, The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions during the Cold War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993).
Randall Schweller, Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006), p. 1.
Steven Lobell, “Threat Assessment, the State, and Foreign Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Model,” in Steven Lobell, Norrin Ripsman, Jeffrey Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), pp. 42–74.
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John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2007), p. 142. See also pp. 141–42, 281.
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Giandomenico Picco, Man without a Gun (New York: Times Books, 1999), pp. 5–6; Hunter, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era, p. 49.
Quoted in Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007), p. 152.
Samuel Huntington, “The Clash of Civilisations?,” Foreign Affairs 72, no. 3 (1993): 22–49.
Edward Djerejian, Danger and Opportunity: An American Ambassador’s Journey through the Middle East (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2008), p. 20.
Michael Cox, US Foreign Policy after the Cold War: Superpower without a Mission? (London: Pinter, 1995), p. 120.
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Quoted in Hoonan Peimani, Iran and the United States: The Rise of the West Asian Regional Grouping (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1999), p. 92.
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© 2014 Alex Edwards
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Edwards, A. (2014). A Triumphant America and a Villainous Iran: Perception as an Intervening Variable. In: “Dual Containment” Policy in the Persian Gulf. Middle East Today. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137447241_5
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