Abstract
This chapter focuses on concepts about complexity that are useful in any decision setting. This includes identifying the nature and types of interactions surrounding a decision and understanding their implications. It is critical to observe the variations in the pattern of behavior after action in an interconnected system and the ensuing pattern of risks and their severity. This chapter also introduces the role of learning from the past and reacting rapidly to changing situations, as well as the role of values and the behaviors that serve best in choice making under uncertainty.
Specific skills introduced in the chapter are useful for guiding decision-making under increased complexity. These include: (1) the ability to observe and adapt to variations in the operating environment; (2) skills for assessing and selecting from a variety of options with little or partial information; (3) options for functioning in areas with low predictability about the future; (4) approaches for adjusting to the range of actions of other stakeholders; and (5) methods of engaging in actions to shape the global properties of decision environments for a common future outcome.
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The world’s largest beer brewers are AB InBev and SABMiller, who collectively market hundreds of brands. The next two largest brewers are Heineken and Carlsberg, as they produce about half of the beer sold worldwide. Source: MilwardBrown (2013): “Brewers Expand Globally While Satisfying Local Tastes.” Top 100 Global Brands published in 2013 BrandZ Top 100. http://www.millwardbrown.com/BrandZ/Top_100_Global_Brands/Categories/food_and_drink/Beer.aspx.
Wang, M.D. and Jolly, A. M. (2004). Changing virulence of the SARS virus: The epidemiological evidence. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 82, 547.
Smith, R. D. (2006): Responding to global infectious disease outbreaks: lessons from SARS on the role of risk perception, communication and management, in: Social Science & Medicine 63:3114.
Smith, R. D. (2006): Responding to global infectious disease outbreaks: lessons from SARS on the role of risk perception, communication and management, in: Social Science & Medicine 63:3118.
Wang, M.D. and Jolly, A. M. (2004). Changing virulence of the SARS virus: The epidemiological evidence. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 82, 548.
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© 2014 Frannie Léautier
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Léautier, F. (2014). Complexity and Risk. In: Leadership in a Globalized World. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137431219_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137431219_4
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
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