Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Business Cycles Synchronisation between the European Monetary Union and Poland

  • Chapter
Poland and the Eurozone

Part of the book series: Studies in Economic Transition ((SET))

  • 137 Accesses

Abstract

The recent experience in the European Monetary Union (EMU) with the debt crisis and its repercussions has revealed the fragility of the common currency area. Some argue that countries like Greece and Portugal should not have joined in the first place as their economies where not aligned with the European economies. Thus, one aspect of the debate on monetary union centres on the readiness of a country to join the EMU. One criterion that many bring forward as an indication of this readiness is the business cycle synchronisation between the country and the EU-wide cycle.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Part II: Chapter 5 References

  • Alesina, A. and R.J. Barro (2002) ‘Currency unions’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, pp. 409–436.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Altavilla, C. (2004) ‘Do EMU members share the same business cycle?’, Journal of Common Market Studies, 42, pp. 869–896.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Artis, M., H.M. Krolzig and J. Toro (2004) ‘The European business cycle’, Oxford Economic Papers, 56, pp. 1–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aslanidis, N. (2010) ‘Business cycle synchronization between the CEEC and the euro-area: Evidence from threshold seemingly unrelated regressions’, The Manchester School, 78(6), pp. 538–555.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Babetskii, I. (2005) ‘Trade integration and synchronisation of shocks. Implications for EU enlargement’, Economics of Transition, 13, pp. 105–138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baxter, M. and R.G. King (1999) ‘Measuring business cycles: Approximate bandpass filters for economic time series’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, pp. 575–593.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belo, F. (2001) ‘Some facts about the cyclical convergence in the euro zone’, Banco de Portugal Working Paper No. 7–01.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bergman, U.M. and L. Jonung (2010) ‘Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union’, European Commission, Economic Papers 402.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bjornland, H.C. and K. Leitemo (2009) ‘Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, pp. 275–282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bower, U. and C. Guillemineau (2006) ‘Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronisation across Euro Area Countries’, ECB Working paper series No. 587.

    Google Scholar 

  • Canova, F. and H. Dellas (1993) ‘Trade interdependence and the international business cycle’, Journal of International Economics, 34, pp. 23–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cerqueira, P.A. and R. Martins (2009) ‘Measuring the determinants of business cycle synchronization using a panel approach’, Economics Letters, 102(2), pp. 106–108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cerqueira, P.A. and R. Martins (2011) ‘Is there a political dimension on business cycle synchronization?’, Kyklos, 64(3), pp. 329–341.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cienski, J. (2011) ‘Poland grows but struggles with debt’. Global Post. 8th February.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarida, R., J. Gali and M. Gertler (1999) ‘The science of monetary policy: A New Keynesian perspective’, Journal of Economic Literature, 37, pp. 1661–1707.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crespo-Cuaresma, J. and O. Fernández-Amador (2013) ‘Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment’, Journal of Macroeconomics, 37, pp. 265–284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Darvas, Z. and G. Szapary (2008) ‘Business cycle synchronization in the enlarged EU’, Open Economies Review, 19, pp. 1–19.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dees, S. and N. Zorell (2012) ‘Business cycle synchronisation: Disentangling trade and financial linkages’, Open Economies Review, 23, pp. 623–643.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Degiannakis, S., D. Duffy and G. Filis (2014) ‘Business cycle synchronisation in EU: A time-varying approach’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle, R. (2002) ‘Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(3), pp. 339–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Espinoza, R., F. Fornari and M.J. Lombardi (2012) ‘The role of financial variables in predicting economic activity’, Journal of Forecasting, 31, pp. 15–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fatas, A. (1997) ‘EMU: Countries or regions? Lessons from the EMS experience’, European Economic Review, 41, pp. 743–751.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fidrmuc, J. (2004) ‘The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria, intra-industry trade, and EMU enlargement’, Contemporary Economic Policy, 22, pp. 1–12.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fidrmuc, J. and I. Korhonen (2006) ‘Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs’, Journal of Comparative Economics, 34, pp. 518–537.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Filis, G., S. Degiannakis and C. Floros (2011) ‘Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries’, International Review of Financial Analysis, 20(3), pp. 152–164.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Filis, G., C. Floros, C. Leon and C. Beneki (2010) ‘Are EU and Bulgarian business cycles synchronized?’, Journal of Money, Investment and Banking, 14, pp. 36–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frankel, J.A. and A.K. Rose (1998) ‘The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria’, Economic Journal, 108, pp. 1009–1025.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Furceri, D. and G. Karras (2008) ‘Business-cycle synchronization in the EMU’, Applied Economics, 40, pp. 1491–1501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gächter, M., A. Riedl and D. Ritzberger-Gruenwald (2012) ‘Business cycle synchronization in the Euro Area and the impact of the financial crisis’, Monetary Policy and the Economy, 2, pp. 33–60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gayer, C. (2007) ‘A fresh look at business cycle synchronisation in the euro area’ (No. 287). Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs, European Commission.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gertler, M., J. Gali and R. Clarida (1999) ‘The science of monetary policy: A new keynesian perspective’, Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), pp. 1661–1707.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gomez, D.M., G.J. Ortega and B. Torgler (2012) ‘Synchronization and diversity in business cycles: A network approach applied to the European Union’, CREMA Working Paper Series 2012–01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

    Google Scholar 

  • GUS (2013) ‘Demographic year book of Poland’, Central Statistical Office. Poland.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Haan, J., J. Jacobs and M. Mink (2007) ‘Measuring synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles with an application to the Euro area’, CESifo Working Paper Series with No. 2112.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Haan, J., R. Inklaar and R. Jong-a Pin (2008) ‘Will business cycles in the euro area converge? A critical survey of empirical research’, Journal of Economic Surveys, 22, pp. 234–273.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallett, H.A. and C. Richter (2008) ‘Have the Eurozone economies converged on a common European cycle?’, International Economics and Economic Policy, 5, pp. 71–101.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hodrick, R. and E. Prescott (1997) ‘Postwar U.S. business cycles: An empirical investigation’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29, pp. 1–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imbs, J. (2004) ‘Trade, finance, specialization and synchronization’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 86, pp. 723–734.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imbs, J. (2006) ‘The real effects of financial integration’, Journal of International Economics, 68, pp. 296–324.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Inklaar, R., R. Jong-a Pin and J. de Haan (2008) ‘Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries — a re-examination’, European Economic Review, 52, pp. 646–666.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jimenez-Rodriguez, R., A. Morales-Zumaquero and B. Egert (2013) ‘Business Cycle Synchronization between Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries’, Review of Development Economics, 17(2), pp. 379–395.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kennen, P.B. (1969) ‘The optimum currency area: An eclectic view’ in R.A. Mundell and A. Swoboda (eds) Monetary Problems of the International Economy (University of Chicago Press: Chicago).

    Google Scholar 

  • McKinnon, R. (1963) ‘Optimum currency areas’, American Economic Review, 53, pp. 717–725.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kocenda, E. (2001) ‘Macroeconomic convergence in transition economies’, Journal of Comparative Economics, 29, pp. 1–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korhonen, I. (2003) ‘Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries: A note’, Economics of Transition, 11, pp. 1–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kose, M., E. Prasad and M. Terrones (2003a) ‘How does globalization affect the synchronization of business cycles?’, American Economic Review, 93, pp. 57–62.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kose, K., C. Otrok and C. Whiteman (2003b) ‘International business cycles: World, region and country specific factors’, American Economic Review, 93, pp. 1216–1239.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kutan, A.M., and T. Yigit (2004) ‘Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies’, Journal of Comparative Economics, 32, pp. 23–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, J. (2013) ‘Business cycle synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model’, International Economic Journal, 27, pp. 347–364.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lehwald, S. (2012) ‘Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery’, Empirica, pp. 1–30.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lopez-Cordova, J.E. and C. Meissner (2003) ‘Exchange rate regimes and international trade: Evidence from the classical gold standard era’, American Economic Review, 93, pp. 344–353.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matkowski, Z. and M. Prochniak (2004) ‘Economic Convergence in the EU Accession Countries’ in Z. Matkowski (ed.) Composite Indicators of Business Activity for Macroeconomic Analysis — The RIED Papers and Proceedings, vol. 74 (SGH: Warsaw).

    Google Scholar 

  • Maurel, M. (2002) ‘On the way of EMU enlargement towards CEECs: What is the appropriate exchange rate regime?’, Discussion paper No. 3409. CEPR.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, D.P., B. Rime and P.E. Strahan (2004) ‘Bank integration and state business cycles’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, pp. 1555–1585.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mundell, R.A. (1961) ‘A theory of optimum currency areas’, American Economic Review, 51, pp. 657–665.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Pace, P. (2013) ‘Currency union, free-trade areas, and business cycle synchronization’, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 17, pp. 646–680.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papageorgiou, T., G. Michaelides and J.G. Milios (2010) ‘Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960–2009)’, Journal of Economics and Business, 62, pp. 419–470.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peersman, G., and I. Van Robays (2011) ‘Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks’, Energy Economics, 34(5), pp. 1532–1547.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramos, R., and J. Surinach (2004) ‘Shocking aspects of European enlargement’, Eastern European Economics, 42, pp. 36–57.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogoff, K. (1985) ‘The optimal degree of commitment to intermediate monetary target’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100, pp. 1169–1190.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A., and C. Engel (2002) ‘Currency unions and international integration’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34, pp. 1067–1089.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A., and T.D. Stanley (2005) ‘A Meta-analysis of the effect of common currencies on international trade’, Journal of Economic Surveys, 19, pp. 347–365.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sachs, J. (1994) ‘Shock Therapy in Poland: Perspectives of Five Years’, Tanner lectures (April 6 and 7, 1994), University of Utah.

    Google Scholar 

  • Savva, C.S., K.C. Neanidis and D.R. Osborn (2010) ‘Business cycle synchronisation of the Euro area with the new and negotiating member countries’, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 15, pp. 288–306.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sebastien, W. (2009) ‘Business cycle synchronicity, amplitude and the euro: One size does not yet fit all’, MPRA Working Paper 21065.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smetkowski, M. (2002) ‘Polish Special Economic Zones as an Instrument of Regional and Industrial Policy’, MPRA Working Paper 39184.

    Google Scholar 

  • Valentinaite, M. and V. Snieska (2005) ‘Baltic states business cycle symmetry: shock correlation approach’, Engineering Economics, 4(44), pp. 24–30.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weyerstrass, K., B. van Aarle, M. Kappler and A. Seymen (2011) ‘Business cycle synchronisation with(in) the euro area: In search of a ‘euro effect’, Open Economy Review, 22, pp. 427–446.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xekalaki, E. and S. Degiannakis (2010) ARCH models for financial applications, (Wiley: New York).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Zaghini, A. (2001) ‘Fiscal adjustments and economic performing: A comparative study’, Applied Economics, 33(5), pp. 613–624.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors
  1. George Filis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Steve Letza
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Bournemouth University, UK

    Jens Hölscher (Professor of Economics and Head of Department) (Professor of Economics and Head of Department)

Copyright information

© 2014 George Filis and Steve Letza

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Filis, G., Letza, S. (2014). Business Cycles Synchronisation between the European Monetary Union and Poland. In: Hölscher, J. (eds) Poland and the Eurozone. Studies in Economic Transition. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137426413_5

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation