DPRK Provocations: Deterring the Cycle of Violence

Abstract

Most North Korean provocations have had four things in common: (1) they are intentionally initiated at moments when they have the likelihood of garnering the greatest attention on the regional and perhaps even the world stage; (2) they initially appear to be incidents that are relatively small, easily contained, and quickly “resolved;” (3) they involve continuously changing tactics and techniques; and (4) they deny responsibility for the event. The South Korean military and government have taken important measures to deter and defend against this rogue state behavior. North Korea’s tactics, techniques, and procedures indicate a successful violent provocation in the future.