Predicting the Eclipse: Searching for a Black Swan and Windows of Doom

Abstract

One of the most celebrated of Thales’ achievements is his (claimed) prediction of a solar eclipse in 585 BC. The eclipse occurred during a battle at Halys between the Lydians and Medes in that year. Upon seeing the solar eclipse, the two parties at war decided it was a signal from the gods that they should pursue peace. The story is recounted by Herodotus as follows:

After this, seeing that Alyattes would not give up the Scythians when Kyaxares demanded them, there had arisen war between the Lydians and the Medes lasting five years; in which years the Medes often discomfited the Lydians and the Lydians often discomfited the Medes (and among others they fought also a battle by night): and as they still carried on the war with equally balanced fortune, in the sixth year a battle took place in which it happened, when the fight had begun, that suddenly the day became night. And this change of the day Thales the Milesian had foretold to the Ionians laying down as a limit this very year in which the change took place. The Lydians however and the Medes, when they saw that it had become night instead of day, ceased from their fighting and were much more eager both of them that peace should be made between them.

(Herodotus & Macaulay (trans), 1890)

Other ancient sources also mention Thales’ prediction of the solar eclipse such as Laertius & Hicks (trans) (1925). Panchenko (1994)

As light will fade, begins to blacken through,

A time will pause and life awaits that cue,

Of the sun’s shine, so bathed in gold, in heat,

Eclipse will pass Mother Nature’s one feat.