Ascending Indonesia: Significance and Conceptual Foundations

Abstract

As Indonesia’s economy grows, it is increasingly being referred to as a rising middle power, and there is mounting speculation that Indonesia might eventually join the ranks of Asia’s great powers. Regardless of just how far Indonesia will rise, its government and the will of its people will become increasingly influential in terms of its regional leadership and the values and the norms Jakarta espouses. Such speculation raises questions as to the domestic opportunities and constraints that inform Indonesia’s rise, and how various domestic contexts affect Indonesia’s foreign policy and the values it espouses. Meanwhile, the image of Indonesia as an increasingly stable and democratic nation has contributed to its significant deepening of security ties with other nations such as Australia and the United States. But how might these ties be perceived across East Asia, and how might East Asian perceptions affect relations with those countries? Within Southeast Asia, what will the rise of a more independent and potentially assertive Indonesia mean for the future of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)? Will it serve to strengthen this body as Indonesia strengthens what many regard as its natural leadership role within ASEAN, or will it threaten ASEAN’s continued viability and strategic centrality as a more assertive and independent Indonesia opts increasingly to forge its global path independent of other regional nations? And what will Indonesia’s rise mean for the Asian balance of power more generally? Will the Indonesian archipelago, with its vital sea lanes for instance, become a theater for great power competition? Will a rising Indonesia substantially influence the Asian balance by allying with either the United States or China?