Abstract
The following section addresses a number of potential approaches to testing policy. They are not intended to be an exclusive list, but are research instruments which have particular resonance with this area of policy or, for reasons which are explained, have been excluded from consideration. They are a controlled pilot, possibly incorporating large data sets; evaluative studies; isomorphism; a counterfactual; laboratory experiments; a simulation or a combination of different approaches.
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Notes
L. Haynes, O. Service, B. Goldacre & D. Torgerson, Behavioural Insights Team (2012), Test, Learn, Adapt: Developing Public Policy with Randomised Controlled Trials. http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/test-learn-adapt-developing-public-policy-randomised-controlled-trials, accessed 5 December 2012.
Nudging is of interest to the current coalition government. It came to wide notice following the publication of R. Thaler & C. Sunstein (2009), Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness (London: Penguin). A simple (or even crass) example is to require applicants for driving licences to tick a box agreeing, or not, to become an organ donor before they can get their licence. The insights are essentially those of behavioural economics, such as anchoring, discussed on p. 123. Glennerster (see endnote 3) points to the huge advantage in cost– benefit terms in improving school student test results by the simple nudge of publishing test scores in Pakistan compared with vast investment in Tennessee (USA).
J. Peysner (1999), ‘Focus Groups & Analogue Vignettes: Modelling and Piloting in Civil Procedural Reform’, Civil Justice Quarterly, 18 pp. 113–131. This was based on an earlier paper, J. Peysner & I. McLachlan ‘Learning the Rules by Playing the Game’, West Indian Law Journal ISBN 0253–7370 given at the Commonwealth Legal Education Association Conference 1998.
J.S. Kakalik, T. Dunworth, L.A. Hill, D.F. McCaffrey, M. Oshiro, N.M. Pace & M.E. Vaiana (1966), Implementation of the Civil Justice Reform Act in Pilot and Comparison Districts (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation).
Conclusion of J. Peysner & M. Seneviratne (2006), ‘The Management of Civil Cases: A Snapshot’, Civil Justice Quarterly, 25 p. 312.
See J. Peysner & M. Seneviratne (2006), ‘The Management of Civil Cases: A Snapshot’, based on J. Peysner & M. Seneviratne, ‘The Management of Civil Cases: The Courts and the Post-Woolf Landscape’, Research Department, Department of Constitutional Affairs 2005, pp. 1–84.
P. Fenn & N. Rickman (2011), ‘Fixing Lawyers’ Fees Ex Ante: A Case Study in Policy and Empirical Legal Studies’, Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 8(3) pp. 533–555.
J. Peysner (2003), ‘Finding Predictable Costs’, Civil Justice Quarterly, 22 pp. 349–370.
US Judge Vanderbilt quoted in R. Marcus, ‘Deja Vu All Over Again? An American Reaction to the Woolf Report’, and M. Zander, ‘Why Lord Woolf’s Proposed Reforms of Civil Procedure Should Be Rejected’ in A. Zuckerman & R. Cranston (1995), Reform of Civil Procedure: Essays on ‘Access to Justice’ (Oxford: Clarendon Press) makes the point that there have been 60 or more reports into civil justice in England since the mid-19th century (p. 79).
J. Peysner & M. Seneviratne (2006), ‘The Management of Civil Cases: A Snapshot’, Civil Justice Quarterly, 25 pp. 312–326.
This approach must be differentiated from another current in comparative procedure, which is harmonisation, for example, Storme’s attempt to produce a unified European code of civil procedure (M. Storme (Ed.) (2003), Procedural Laws in Europe. Towards Harmonisation (Antwerp: Maklu)). This is, in the author’s view, a flawed and hopeless project. (By way of comparison, see similar comments on the attempt to create harmonisation of tax policies across Europe in
C. Radaelli (2000), ‘Policy Transfer in the European Union: Institutional Isomorphism as a Source of Legitimacy’, Governance: An International Journal of Policy and Administration, 13(1) p. 35.)
J. Jolowicz (2000), On Civil Procedure (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p. 4.
C. Hodges, I. Benöhr & N. Creutzfeldt-Banda (2012), Consumer ADR in Europe (Oxford: Hart);
C. Hodges, S. Vogenenaur & M. Tulibacka, The Costs and Funding of Civil Litigation (Oxford: Beck/Hart) and C. Rodgers (Ed.) (2014), Competition Law: Comparative Private Enforcement and Collective Redress in the EU (Amsterdam: Kluwer) (The author has chapters in the latter two books.)
H. Bochel & S. Duncan (2007), Making Policy In Theory & Practice (Policy Press: Bristol), p. 49. Isomorphism is a phenomenon which is widely recognised across the natural sciences and in computing, including social policy modelling using data sets. For the purposes of this volume, the discussion is based on non-mathematical social policy insights.
J. Kingdon (1984), Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies (New York: Harper Collins) p. 55.
A system of taking a party’s experts and ‘immersing’ them in joint discussions in an attempt to achieve consensus. Discussed in H. Genn (2013), ‘Getting to the Truth: Experts and Judges in the “hot tub”’, Civil Justice Quarterly, l32 (2) p. 275.
S. Corby & P. Latreille (2012), ‘Employment Tribunals and the Civil Courts: Isomorphism Exemplified’, Industrial Law Journal, 41(4) pp. 387–406.
R. Moorhead (2010), ‘An American Future? Contingency Fees, Claims Explosions and Evidence from Employment Tribunals’, The Modern Law Review, 73 pp. 752–784.
Philip K. Dick (1999), The Man in the High Castle (new edition) (London: Penguin).
World War II, perhaps because its outcome was in doubt until Stalingrad and the result was fundamental to the 20th-century world, has been a rich source of counterfactual literature. See, for example, Philip Roth (2004), The Plot against America (London: Vintage), where Roosevelt loses the presidential election.
See, for example, R. Cowley (Ed.) (1999) ‘What if? Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been (New York: Berkley Trade/Penguin Group) (reproduced articles from MHQ: The Quarterly Journal of Military History Spring 1998).
Review by R. Lebow (2000), World Politics, 52(4) pp. 550–585 of
N. Ferguson (1999), What’s So Different about a Counterfactual? Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (New York: Basic Books) and
N. Ferguson (1999), The Pity of War: Explaining World War I (New York: Basic Books).
A more complex factual change is illustrated in J. Fearon (1991), ‘Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science’, World Politics, 43(2) pp. 169–195, 182 (quoting S. Evera (1984), ‘The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War’, International Security, 9 pp. 58–107, 105), addressing the argument that it was the cult of the offensive in military doctrine that inexorably drove the countries to war in 1914: ‘The consequences of the cult of the offensive are illuminated by imagining the politics of 1914 had European leaders recognized the actual power of the defense …. All European states would have been less tempted to mobilize first, and each could have tolerated more preparations by adversaries before mobilizing themselves, so the spiral of mobilization and counter-mobilization would have operated more slowly, if at all. If armies mobilized, they might have rushed to defend their own trenches and fortifications, instead of crossing frontiers, divorcing mobilization from war. Mobilizations could more easily have been confined to single frontiers, localizing the crisis. Britain could more easily have warned the Germans and restrained the Russians, and all statesmen could more easily have recovered and reversed mistakes made in haste or on false information. Thus the logic that led Germany to provoke the 1914 crisis would have been undermined, and the chain reaction by which the war spread outward from the Balkans would have been very improbable. In all likelihood, the Austro-Serbian conflict would have been a minor and soon-forgotten disturbance on the periphery of European politics.’
A.J.P. Taylor (1991), The Origins of the Second World War (new edition) (London: Penguin Books).
A.J.P. Taylor (1954), The Struggle for the Mastery in Europe, 1848–1918 (London: Oxford University).
P. Tetlock & A. Belkin (Eds) (1966), Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princetown: Princetown University Press) (fn. 7) pp. 14–16.
The role of these constructs in the context of future studies, and particularly the relationship between futures academics and the practitioner community in various fields, is discussed in L. Mermet, T. Fuller & R. van der Helm (2009), ‘Introduction’, Futures, 41 (2009) pp. 67–70.
P. Tetlock & A. Belkin (Eds) (1996), Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton: Princeton University Press).
A. Riley & J. Peysner (2006), ‘Damages in EC Antitrust Actions: Who Pays the Piper?’, European Law Review, (31) pp. 748–761. J. Peysner (2006), ‘Costs and Financing in Private Third Party Competition Damages Actions’, Competition Law Review (http://www.clasf.org/CompLRev/); M. Hviid & J. Peysner, ‘Comparing Economic Incentives to Pursue Private Actions across EU Member States’, chapter in B. Rodgers (Ed.) (2014) 3rd Party Damage Claims (Amsterdam: Kluwer).
They are also widely used in other jurisdictions, including the UK, Australia and New Zealand. This is accepted (although the model is criticised) by C. Veljanovski (2013), ‘Market Power and Counterfactuals in New Zealand’, Journal of Competition Law & Economics, 9(1) pp. 171–201.
For illustration of the economic approach and the use of counterfactuals, see K. Hüschelrath & K. Müller (2013), ‘Concrete Shoes for Competition: The Effect of the German Cement Cartel on Market Price’, Journal of Competition Law & Economics, 9(1) pp. 97–112.
P. De Smedt, K. Borch & T. Fuller (2013), ‘Future Scenarios to Inspire Innovation’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(3) pp. 432–443.
N. Rickman (1995), ‘The Economics of Cost-Shifting Rules’, in A. Zuckerman & R. Cranston (Eds), Reform of Civil Procedure (Oxford: OUP) pp. 327–345. This chapter refers to the core US literature.
B. Main & A. Park (2001), ‘Cost Shifting and Pre-trial Settlement’, Hume Papers on Public Policy, 8(3) pp. 42–67. ISBN: 0 7486 1548 2;
B. Main & A. Park (1999), ‘The Impact of Defendant Offers into Court on Negotiation in the Shadow of the Law: Experimental Evidence’ (http://www.econ.ed.ac.uk/papers/paper2.pdf);
B. Main (2002), International Review of Law and Economics, 22 pp. 177–192 (http://www.business-school.ed.ac.uk/about/people/65/Brian/Main#_staffpublications-1), accessed 24/7/ 2014. ISSN: 0144–8188.
B. Main & A. Park (2003), ‘An Experiment with Two-way Offers into Court: Restoring the Balance in Pre-trial Negotiation’, Journal of Economic Studies, 30(2) pp. 125–143 (http://www.business-school.ed.ac.uk/about/people/65/Brian/Main#_staffpublications-1), accessed 24/7/2014. ISSN: 0144–3585.
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Kurt-Schumacher-Str. 10, D-53113 Bonn (http://www.coll.mpg.de/). See C. Eisenberg & C. Engel (2014), ‘Assuring Civil Damages Adequately Deter: A Public Good Experiment’, Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 11(2) pp. 301–349.
J. Peysner (1999), ‘Focus Groups & Analogue Vignettes: Modelling and Piloting in Civil Procedural Reform’, Civil Justice Quarterly, 18 pp. 113–131.
The author was first course leader as well as a co-developer. As noted in the article (J. Peysner, ‘Focus Groups & Analogue Vignettes: Modelling and Piloting in Civil Procedural Reform’ p. 125), the theoretical basis of this type of experiential learning was the influential work of D.A. Kolb (1984), Experimental Learning (London: Prentice Hall, London), amongst others. Earlier models were not full-blown role-playing games but ‘moderated hypotheticals’ with a chairperson leading panels through a problem. This was based on a Harvard model.
AA Poythress et al. (1993), ‘Procedural Justice Judgments of Alternative Procedures for Resolving Medical Malpractice Claims’, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 23 p. 1693.
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Peysner, J. (2014). A Suggested Approach. In: Access to Justice. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137397232_11
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