The 2012 Elections and the Southern Roots of Polarized Politics: The Continuing Power of Southern Conservatives after Obama’s Reelection

Abstract

In 2012, for the second time Barack Obama won the nation but lost the South. The election of a president with a minority of Southern votes and little connection to the region is unique in modern American history. Since the 1920s America has elected presidents who either were from the South—Eisenhower (Texan by birth), Johnson, Carter, both Bushs, Clinton—or won large majorities of Southern popular and electoral votes—Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Nixon, Reagan. After two victories with a minority of support in the South and a life spent in Hawaii, California, New York, Massachusetts, and Illinois, Barack Obama can be understood as the “least Southern” president since the 1920s. His narrow wins in Virginia and Florida mask his larger weakness in the South. He won fewer Southern electoral votes than any candidate elected President since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. He could have won a clear Electoral College majority in both elections with no Southern states, and Florida and Virginia were his first and third narrowest victories in 2012.