The Past as Prologue: Obama, Health Care, and the Election of 2012

Abstract

What role did health care play in the election of 2012? Precious little, to look at the polls. Though most Americans appeared to be less than thrilled with the Affordable Care Act (ACA), health care was not the most important electoral influence. There were clear differences between Democratic President Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney on health care, but most Americans paid more attention to economic issues than health care in 2012. Only 10 percent of the public ranked health care as their number one concern in 2012 (see Table 11.1). In a sense, a vote for Obama was a mandate for health care (given that Republicans vowed to repeal the ACA), and yet, that doesn’t appear to be why people voted for him. Perhaps the better question is, “What role did the election of 2012 play in health care?” In contrast to our initial question, the answer to this one is “a great deal.” In fact, the elections of 2008, 2010 and 2012 were all critical ones for the future of health care reform. The 2012 election, especially with regard to health care, can only be understood within the broader context of the previous two elections. Before we can understand the consequences of the 2012 election then, let us establish the context, and examine the 2008 elections.