Epilogue Democratic Transitions in the Arab World

Abstract

This book has sought to identify some of the factors that have thus far shaped this multi-faceted phenomenon that is popularly called the “Arab Spring.” While outlining the unique circumstances and diverse trajectories that each of the uprisings has taken, the book’s contributors have also sought to highlight common elements and processes that connect these events together. In particular, four key variables appear to have been critical to determining the relative success or failure of individual uprisings: (1) the strength of state traditions; (2) the level of institutional experience with pluralism; (3) oil rents; and (4) the configurations of political patronage. In this vein, this epilogue offers insights that allow us to begin to appreciate where the uprisings have come from in each country and tentatively predict how these processes are likely to develop into the near future.

Peter Lee is a Program Officer in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, Korea. He received a B.A. with Honours in Political Science and a Master of International Relations (MIR) from the University of Melbourne, Australia.