Regime Changes in Russia: Trajectories of Political Evolution

Abstract

For political scientists, there is probably nothing more demanded and at the same time more speculative than the business of political predictions. These so-called ‘political experts’ actually produce forecasts that are no more precise and substantively grounded than predictions made by an ‘average Joe’. Virtually all political forecasts of this sort — whether made by professionals or amateurs — are based on projections of a current state of affairs into the future, with certain corrections and reservations. However, the real world developments often follow another logic, which is not always clearly understood, especially considering ‘wild cards’ — unexpected and sometimes unpredictable factors that alter possible scenarios.

The article was written as a part of the MODNORTH project funded by the Research Council of Norway and of the project ‘Choices of Russian Modernization’ funded by the Academy of Finland.