The Lotteries of Life: Decisions about an Uncertain Variable

Abstract

If anything about this world is certain, it is that it is uncertain. We are constantly faced with uncertainties, which are often described as “lotteries”. Any happening or process that is, or appears to be, determined by chance is called a lottery. In soccer, for instance, the well-knownmethod of five penalty kicks for each team to decide which team wins when the game has ended in a tie (what FIFA calls the “penalty shoot-out”) is often informally called the “penalty shoot-out lottery” to imply that chance, or randomness, plays an important role in its resolution. We use the same term to refer to more everyday situations, such as whether or not we will be chosen for a particular job, or whether we will be able to avoid heavy traffic on our drive back into the city after a long weekend.