Abstract
Fiscal risk has been the subject of increasing attention over the last two decades. The financial crises of the 1990s, the extensive use of guarantees by transition economies, and the global financial crisis (GFC) and sovereign debt crisis have all shown that even apparently sound budget and debt positions can be subject to large hidden risks from off-budget or off-balance sheet fiscal activities and implicit liabilities. Pressures to reduce budget deficits and debt continue to induce some governments to shift activities off-budget or off-balance sheet in ways that often increase cost and risk.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Bank for International Settlements. 2010. The Basle Committee’s Response to the Financial Crisis: Report to the G20. Bank for International Settlements, October 2010.
Benson, C., and E. Clay. 2004. Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters. Disaster Risk Management Series 4. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Brixi, H. Polackova, and A. Mody. 2002. “Dealing with Government Fiscal Risk: An Overview,” in Brixi and Schick (eds) Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk, Chapter 1, pp. 21–58. The World Bank and Oxford University Press.
Brixi, H. P., and A. Schick (eds) 2002. Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk. The World Bank and Oxford University Press.
Brondolo, J. 2009. Collecting Taxes During an Economic Recession: Challenges and Policy Options. IMF Staff Position Note, July 14, 2009, SPN/09/17.
Budina, N., and M. Petrie. 2013. “Controlling Fiscal Risks,” in M. Cangiano, T. Curristine and M. Lazare (eds) The Emerging Architecture of Public Financial Management in the 21st Century,” International Monetary Fund.
Celasun, O., and J. Walliser. 2008. “Predictability of Aid: Do Fickle Donors Undermine Aid Effectiveness?,” Economic Policy, 23(July): 545–94.
Dobes, L. 2008. “Getting Real about Adapting to Climate Change: Using ‘Real Options’ to Address the Uncertainties,” Agenda, 15(3): 55–69.
Eifert, B., and A. Gelb. 2005. Improving the Dynamics of Aid: Toward More Predictable Budget Support, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, Washington, DC.
Flyvberg, B., M. Holm and S. Buhl. 2002. “Understanding Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?,” Journal of the American Planning Association 68(3): 279–95.
Ghesquiere, F., and O. Mahul. 2010. Financial Protection of the State against Natural Disasters: A Primer, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 5429, September 2010.
Grimes, Arthur. 2001. Crown Financial Asset Management: Objectives and Practice, Treasury Working Paper 01/12, New Zealand Treasury, Wellington.
Hemming, R., and M. Petrie. 2002. “A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability,” in Brixi and Schick (eds) Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk, The World Bank and Oxford University Press, Chapter 7, pp. 159–178.
Hemming, R. and a staff team. 2006. Public-Private Partnerships: Government Guarantees, and Fiscal Risk. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
HM Treasury. 2005. Managing Risks to the Public: Appraisal Guidance, June 2005, http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/documents/public_spending_reporting/governance_risk/psr_governance_risk_riskguidance.cfm
IMF and World Bank. 2003. Guidelines for Public Debt Management, Washington, DC.
IMF. 2001. Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001.
IMF. 2007. Manual on Fiscal Transparency, Washington, available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/2007/eng/101907m.pdf
IMF. 2007. Guide on Resource Revenue Transparency, Washington, DC, available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/trans/guide.htm
IMF. 2008. Fiscal Risks – Sources, Disclosure, and Management, Washington, DC, available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pp/longres.aspx?id=4265.
IPCC. 2011. “Summary for Policymakers,” in Field et al. (eds) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
Irwin, T. 2003. Public Money for Private Infrastructure – Deciding When to Offer Guarantees, Output-Based Subsidies, and Other Fiscal Support, World Bank Working Paper No. 10, Washington, DC: World Bank.
International Standards Organisation. 2009. Risk Management – Principles and Guidelines.
Kim, J. -H. 2008. Institutional Arrangements for Enhancing Public Investment Efficiency in Korea, International Conference of World Bank and KDI, Seoul, Korea, November 20–21, 2008.
Lis, E. M., and C. Nickel. 2009. The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Budget Balances and Implications for Fiscal Policy. Working Paper 1055. European Central Bank, Frankfurt.
OECD. 2005. Explicit Contingent Liabilities in Debt Management, in “Advances in Risk Management of Government Debt,” Chapter 6, pp. 89–116, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Petrie, M. 2002. “Accounting and Financial Accountability to Capture Risk,” in Brixi and Schick (eds) Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk, Chapter 2. The World Bank and Oxford University Press. pp. 59–97.
Petrie, M. 2008a. Controlling Fiscal Risks, in Hemming, R, J-H. Kim and S-H. Lee (eds) Sustainability and Efficiency in Managing Public Expenditures. Seoul: KDI Press.
Petrie, M. 2008b. Fiscal Risk Management: New Zealand Country Case Study, unpublished background paper for International Monetary Fund, 2008, Fiscal Risks – Sources, Disclosure, and Management, August 2008.
Rajaram, A., T. Le, N. Biletska, and J. Brumby. 2009. A Diagnostic Framework for Assessing Public Investment Management, Public Sector and Governance Unit, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Schick, A. 1998a. A Contemporary Approach to Public Expenditure Management. Washington, DC: World Bank Institute.
Schick, A. 1998b. “Toward a Code of Good Practice on Managing Fiscal Risk,” in Brixi and Schick (eds) Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk, Conclusion, pp. 461–471. Washington, DC: World Bank Institute.
Syroka, J., and A. Nucifora. 2010. National Drought Insurance for Malawi, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5169, January 2010.
World Bank, Disaster Risk Management Programs for Priority Countries, 2011, 2nd edition, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/node/814
World Bank. 2010a. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change.
World Bank. 2010b. Natural Hazards and Unnatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention. Washington, DC: World Bank.
World Bank. 2011. The Quality of Public Investment Management in Bangladesh, June 2011.
Zeckhauser, R., and W. Viscusi. 1990. Risk Within Reason, Science, May 4, 1990, 248: pp. 559–564.
Editor information
Copyright information
© 2013 Murray Petrie
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Petrie, M. (2013). Managing Fiscal Risk. In: Allen, R., Hemming, R., Potter, B.H. (eds) The International Handbook of Public Financial Management. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137315304_29
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137315304_29
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-33598-5
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-31530-4
eBook Packages: Palgrave Economics & Finance CollectionEconomics and Finance (R0)