Asymmetric Territorial Conflicts: Empirical Analysis

Abstract

In evaluating a formal model’s predictive success we face inherent limitations in terms of measurement, case-selection, falsifiability of assumptions and predictions and control for additional variables. These difficulties are compounded in the case at hand since the posited causal mechanism involves a variable — ‘patience’ — which has not been, and probably cannot be, observed in its own right. Thus, an assessment of the model’s causal validity can only be inferred from an analysis of its observable and measurable aspects.