Models and the Stories They Tell Us

Abstract

Models tell stories that can answer vital questions. Models have become essential tools for epidemiological research. How well they address policy-driven questions in public health is explained. In epidemiological research, the mathematical predecessors for current computer-based modelling techniques have a long history. They aimed at policy advice by providing mathematical representations of infectious patterns in populations.

Mansnerus analyses the early development of probability theory, showing why modelling became beneficial in governing infectious risks. How models are tailored to meet policy needs is revealed through an analysis of interdisciplinary collaboration. Models and mathematical techniques become accessible for us when we see them through the metaphor of storytelling: the transmission of an infection is presented to exemplify this.