From Evidence to Inference: Use of Sources and Counterfactuals

Abstract

The challenge of generating internally valid explanations is to separate the causes that bring about the outcome from those factors that are not of general relevance (Geddes 2003, chap. 1, King et al. 1994, chap. 3). This chapter and the following one provide a comprehensive discussion of causal inference and internal validity, partially drawing on the previous three chapters on cross-case and within-case analysis. The discussion is split into two chapters to highlight the different stages and elements that play a role in the generation of causal inferences. Chapter 8 presents an in-depth discussion of frequentist and Bayesian causal inference and the similarities and differences between them. The present chapter describes the methodsrelated steps and problems that one confronts in the collection of evidence and in inferring that a cause or causal mechanism is or is not operative.