Rwanda 2025: Scenarios for the Future Political Stability of Rwanda

Abstract

After the genocide in 1994 Rwanda faced a disastrous situation. About 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu had been slaughtered and millions of Rwandans had fled their country or became internally displaced persons (IDP). The government was in shambles. The former government had taken all the foreign reserves. Public enterprises, the administrative system, institutions and public services either collapsed or were severely damaged. Most trained personnel were either killed or fled the country, and the number of civil servants fell by 40 per cent. The Rwandan economy, expressed by GDP, shrank in 1994 to 50 per cent of the previous year's size. Livestock herds were almost completely wiped out. It would take until 2000 before Rwanda could reach its pre-genocide GDP levels (IMF, 2000). The new government incarcerated 140,000 genocide suspects, but it was estimated that many more perpetrators in the genocide were still free (Uvin, 2001). Since 1994 the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) government managed to turn this devastated and divided country into an example for the East African region and perhaps even for the whole continent. To the donor community Rwanda is a success story with GDP growth figures of 6 to 8 per cent in recent years. The general assumption is that this economic and social development in Rwanda will contribute to the stability of the country, which will hopefully lead to a better life and future for its citizens. This process of building peace in Rwanda is, however, more complex than it appears at first sight, requiring a thorough and patient approach.