The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in Light of Polls in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh

Abstract

Ethno-territorial conflicts, such as the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, are deeply entrenched in society, rendering diplomacy at the state level insufficient. This is particularly true of the NK conflict, where the combination of ethnic, separatist and irredentist grievances renders the legitimate status of the disputed region a “deep-rooted and emotional source of suspicion, fear, and potential violence amongst the conflicting parties”.¹ Accordingly, if the population is not engaged in the peace process, any agreement reached at the official level threatens to be derailed by a subsequent refusal from the population. Moreover, the Basic Principles that form the foundation for current peace negotiations stipulate that the enclave’s final status will be determined through a “legally binding expression of will by the Nagorno-Karabakh people”.² Resolving the conflict thus demands mediation on two levels, involving both official negotiations within the format of the OSCE Minsk Group and wider peace-building activity, involving all layers of society in order to engage the populations with the peace negotiations; build confidence between the conflicting parties; and foster a sense of ownership over the process.