Skip to main content

Conclusion: Realistic Scenarios and How to Avoid a War in Nagorno-Karabakh

  • Chapter
Europe’s Next Avoidable War
  • 298 Accesses

Abstract

This volume has covered a diverse set of aspects concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Two key conclusions follow. On the one hand, the deplorable and worrying situation between the conflict parties has become, over the past decades, deeply rooted in a negative cycle of distrust and fear. Recently, it has deteriorated further, making measures to avert scenarios of military escalation more urgent than ever. On the other hand, following the title of this book, each author has highlighted neglected potential and exposed new factors. These indicate that, with the necessary political will and attention, escalation can still be averted.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

  1. E. Walker (1998) “No Peace, No War in the Caucasus: Secessionist Conflicts in Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh”, Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Occasional Paper.

    Google Scholar 

  2. IIFFMCG (2009) Report of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia, http://www.ceiig.ch/Index.html (date accessed: 13 June 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  3. M. Muradova (2011) “Azerbaijan Boosts Defence Production”, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5482 (excerpt: “On January 14, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that “… Azerbaijan’s defence budget in 2011 is 30 per cent higher than the total [annual] budget of Armenia … we spend US$ three billion only for military expenses”. (In October, Azerbaijan adopted a US$ 3.12 billion military budget for 2011, including a 90 per cent hike in military spending in comparison with 2010. “… It means that the difference between the two countries is on a non-comparable level. For the military budget, we can allocate as much [money] as we want, while Armenia will depend only on aid from abroad …”, Aliyev proudly declared at the government meeting.”) (date accessed: 13 June 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  4. International Crisis Group (2011) “Armenia and Azerbaijan Preventing War”, Europe Briefing, No. 60 Tbilisi/Baku/Yerevan/Istanbul Brussels, 8 February 2011, 5–7, http://www.scribd.com/doc/48420672/Armenia-and-Azerbaijan-Preventing-War-Europe-Briefing-N%C2%B060-Tbilisi-Baku-Yerevan-Istanbul-Brussels-8-February-2011 (date accessed: 13 June 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Asbarez, “Azerbaijan must attack Yerevan, says political expert”, 14 July 2011, http://asbarez.com/97048/azerbaijan-must-attack-yerevan-says-political-expert/ (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Asbarez, “Azerbaijan Preparing for War, Says Defence Minister”, 14 February 2011, http://asbarez.com/93413/azerbaijan-preparing-for-war-says-defense-minister/, (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Mediamax, “‘There is a red line which we’ll never cross’, the Armenian President states”, 30 August 2011, http://www.mediamax.am/en/news/karabakh/2187/ (date accessed 31 August 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  8. See in this volume: O. Luchterhandt (2011) “Learning from Georgia: A non-use-of-force treaty for Nagorno-Karabakh”, Chap. 20.

    Google Scholar 

  9. OSCE (1975) Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, Final Act, Helsinki, 1 August 1975, http://www.osce.org/mc/39501 (date accessed: 13 June 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Armenialiberty, “Aliyev again Threatens New War for Karabakh”, 05 January 2011, http://www.armenialiberty.org/content/article/1599118.html (date accessed: 13 June 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Europa (2010) “Statement by the spokesperson of High Representative Catherine Ashton on Nagorno-Karabakh”, A 110/10, Brussels, 22 June 2010, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/115451.pdf (date accessed: 13 June 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Asbarez, “OSCE Chairman Rep. Calls for End to War Threats”, 7 June 2011, http://asbarez.com/96429/osce-chairman-rep-call-for-end-to-war-threats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Asbarez+%28Asbarez+News%29 (date accessed: 13 June 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  13. RA Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “The Armenian Foreign Affairs Minister Edward Nalbandian received the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs”, press release, 09 June 2011, http://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/item/2011/06/09/mg_co_chairs/ (date accessed: 13 June 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  14. OSCE (2011a) “Executive Summary of the ‘Report of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ Field Assessment Mission to the Occupied Territories of Azerbaijan Surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh”, 24 March 2011, http://www.osce.org/mg/76209 (date accessed: 13 Tune 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  15. The European Azerbaijan Society (TEAS), “Azerbaijani IDPs call upon the EU to speed their return”, 18 March 2011, https://teas.eu/news/2011–03-18/azerbaijani-idps-call-upon-eu-speed-their-return (date accessed: 11 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  16. APA, “Conference on Nagorno Karabakh conflict held at European Parliament”, 19 April 2011, http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=145346, (date accessed 11 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), “Russia’s Medvedev ‘Frustrated’ With Karabakh Impasse”, 27 June 2011, http://www.rferl.org/content/russia_medvedev_frustrated_karabakh_impasse/24248417.html (date accessed: 08 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  18. H. Khachatrian (2006) “Russian Investments in Armenia: Their Economic Background and Possible Political Impact”, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, 13 December 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  19. RFERL, “Russian Energy Giants to Invest in Armenian Utilities”, 17 June 2011, http://www.rferl.org/content/russian_energy_giants_to_invest_in_armenian_utilities/24238600.html (dateaccessed: 11 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  20. S. Cornell (2004) “Iranian Azerbaijan: A Brewing Hotspot”, presented at Symposium on “Human Rights and Ethnicity in Iran”, 22 November 2004, Stockholm, http://www.azeri.dk/en/articles/Iranian_azerbaijan.html (date accessed: 8 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Reuters, “Azerbaijan leader warns of army buildup at huge parade”, 26 June 2011, http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE75P0LD20110626 (date accessed: 8 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  22. S. Minasyan (2010) “Nagorno-Karabakh after two decades of conflict: Is prolongation of the status quo inevitable?”, Caucasus Institute Research Papers, 52, http://www.caucasusinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/CI_RP_2-eng.pdf (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Europa (2011) European Commission, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security policy, “Implementation of the European Neighbourhood Policy in 2010, Country Report: Azerbaijan” {COM(2011) 303}, http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/pdf/progress2011/sec_11_640_en.pdf (date accessed: 12 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Europa (2011a) Permanent Council, “EU Statement on Human Rights, Fundamental Freedoms and the Rule of Law in Azerbaijan”, Vienna, 1 September 2011, http://www.delvie.ec.europa.eu/en/eu_osce/eu_statements/2011/September/PC%20no.878%20%20EU%20on%20HR%20in%20AEZ.pdf (date accessed: 2 September 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Europa (2011b) EEAS, “Statement by High Representative Catherine Ashton on Azerbaijan”, Brussels, 20 May 2011, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/122137.pdf (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Reuters, “Armenia, Azerbaijan blame each other for Karabakh failure”, 25 June 2011, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/25/azerbaijan-armenia-karabakh-idU-KANT55197620110625 (date accessed: 29 Ju1y 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Itar-tass, “Russian president disappointed with the results of the Kazan summit on Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement”, 27 June 2011, http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c142/173888_print.html (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  28. RFERL, “Can the ‘Medvedev Moment’ Be Saved for Karabakh?”, 28 July 2011, http://www.rferl.org/content/medvedev_moment_saved_nagorno_karabakh_kazan/24279692.html (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  29. RFERL, “‘Moscow Declaration’ A Victory for Armenia”, 03 November 2008, http://www.rferl.org/content/Moscow_Declaration_A_Victory_For_Armenia/1337592.html (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Azernews, “President discloses key elements of Garabagh paper”, 03 December 2008, http://www.azernews.az/en/Nation/9099-President_discloses_key_elements_of_Garabagh_paper (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Azatutyun, “Armenian, Azeri Leaders Pledge to Seek Peaceful Karabakh Settlement”, 07 March 2011, http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/2330373.html (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  32. The White House, “Joint Statement on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict by U.S. President Obama, Russian President Medvedev, and French President Sarkozy at the L’Aquila Summit of the Eight, July 10, 2009”, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Joint-Statement-on-the-Nagorno-Karabakh-Conflict/ (date accessed: 29 July 2011).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Copyright information

© 2013 Michael Kambeck

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kambeck, M. (2013). Conclusion: Realistic Scenarios and How to Avoid a War in Nagorno-Karabakh. In: Kambeck, M., Ghazaryan, S. (eds) Europe’s Next Avoidable War. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137030009_21

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics