Abstract
Thiriwall’s 1979 balance of payments constrained growth model predicts that a country’s long-run growth of GDP can be approximated by the ratio of the growth of real exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports assuming negligible effects from real exchange rate movements.1 This chapter surveys developments of the model since then allowing for capital flows, interest payments on debt, terms of trade movements and disaggregation of the model by commodities and trading partners. Various tests of the model are discussed, and extensive lists of papers that have examined the model are presented.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Alleyne, D., and A.A. Francis (2008) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth in Developing Countries: A Theoretical Perspective”, Metroeconomica, 59(2), 189–202.
Alonso, J.A. (1999) “Growth and the External Constraint: Lessons from the Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 31(2), 245–53.
Alonso, J.A., and C. Garcimartin (1998–99) “A New Approach to Balance of Payments Constraint: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21(2), 259–82.
Alvarez-Ude, G.F., and D.M. Gomez (2008) “Long- and Short-Run Balance of Payments Adjustment: Argentine Economic Growth Constrained”, Applied Economics Letters, 15(10), 815–20.
Anderson, P.S. (1993) “The 45-degree Rule Revisited”, Applied Economics, October.
Antunes, M., and E. Soukiazis (2012) “Application of the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model to Portugal 1965–2008”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 34(2), 353–79.
Ansari, M., Hashemzadeh and L. Xi (2000) “The Chronicle of Economic Growth in South East Asian Countries: Does Thirlwall’s Law Provide an Adequate Explanation?” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 22(4), 57–385.
Araujo, R.A., and G. Lima (2007) “A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach to Balance of Payments Constrained Growth”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 31(5), 755–74.
Atesoglu, H.S. (1993) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Evidence from the United States”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 15(4), 507–14.
Atesoglu, H.S. (1993–94) “Exports, Capital Flows, Relative Prices and Economic Growth in Canada”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 16(2), 289–97.
Atesoglu, H.S. (1994) “Balance of Payments Determined Growth in Germany”, Applied Economic Letters, 1(6), 89–91.
Atesoglu, H.S. (1997) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model and Its Implications for the United States”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19(3), 327–35.
Bagnai, A. (2010) “Structural Changes, Cointegration and the Empirics of Thirlwall’s Law”, Applied Economics, 42(10), 1315–29.
Bairam, E. (1988) “Balance of Payments, the Harrod Trade Multiplier and Economic Growth: The European and North American Experience 1970–1985”, Applied Economics, 20(12), 1635–42.
Bairam, E. and G.J. Dempster (1991) “The Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and Economic Growth”, Applied Economics, 23(11), 1719–24.
Barbosa-Filho, N. (2001) “The Balance of Payments Constraint: From Balanced Trade to Sustainable Debt”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro QuarterlyReview, 54(219), 381–400.
Barrett Whale, P. (1932) International Trade (London: Thornton Butterworth).
Barrett Whale, P. (1937) “The Workings of the Pre-War Gold Standard”, Economica, 4(13), 18–32
Beko, J. (2003) “The Validity of the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model for a Small Open Economy in Transition: the Case of Slovenia”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 26(1), 69–93.
Bertola, L., H. Higachi and G. Porcile (2002) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth in Brazil: A Test of Thirlwall’s Law 1890–1973”, Journal ofPost Keynesian Economics, 25(1), 123–40
Boggio, L., and G. Seravilli (2002) “Is the Natural Rate of Growth Exogenous? A Comment”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 55(221), 219–27
Britto, G., and J.S.L. McCombie (2009) “Thirlwall’s Law and the Long-Run Equilibrium Growth Rate: An Application to Brazil”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 32(1), 115–36.
Carvalho, V.R., G. Lima and A. Santos (2008) “A Restricao Externa Como Fator Limitante do Crescimento Brasileiro: um Teste Empirica”, Revista Economia, 9(2), 285–307.
Carvalho, V.R., and G. Lima (2009) “A Restricao Externa e a Perda de Dinamismo da Economia Brasileira: Investigando as Relacoes Entra Estructura Produtiva e Crescimento Economics”, Economia e Sociedade, 18(1), 31–60.
Chenery, H., and M. Bruno (1962) “Development Alternatives in an Open Economy: The Case of Israel”, Economic Journal, 72(285), 79–103.
Christopoulos, D., and E. Tsionas (2003) “A Reassessment of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Results from Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Tests”, International Economic Journal, 17(3), 39–54.
Cimoli, M. (1988) “Technological Gaps and Institutional Asymmetries in a North-South Model with a Continuum of Goods”, Metroeconomica, October, 245–74
Cimoli, M., G. Porcile and S. Rovira (2010) “Structural Change and the BOP Constraint : Why Did Latin America Fail to Converge?” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34(6), 1019–39.
Cooper, R.N. (1982) “The Gold Standard: Historical Facts and Future Prospects” in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institute), 1–45.
Dixon, R.J., and A.P. Thirlwall (1975a) “A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines”, Oxford Economic Papers 27(2), 201–14.
Dixon, R.J., and A.P. Thirlwall (1975b) Regional Growth and Unemployment in the United Kingdom (London: Macmillan).
Dray, M., and A.P. Thirlwall (2011) “The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth for a Selection of Asian Countries”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 33(3), 451–68.
Dutt, A.K. (2002) “Thirlwall’s Law and Uneven Development”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 24(3), 367–90.
Dutt, A.K. (2003) “Income Elasticities of Imports, North-South Trade, and Uneven Development” in A. K. Dutt, J. Ros (eds) Development Economics and Structuralist Macroeconomics (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar).
Elliot, D., and R. Rhodd (1999) “Explaining Growth Rate Differences in the Highly Indebted Countries: An Extension to Thirlwall and Hussain”, Applied Economics, 31(9), 1145–8.
Felipe, J., J.S.L. McCombie and K. Naqvi (2010) “Is Pakistan’s Growth Rate Balance of Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth”, Oxford Development Studies, 38(4), 477–96.
Ferreira, A., and O. Canuto (2003) “Thirlwall’s Law and Foreign Capital in Brazil”, Momento Economico, January–February, 125, 18–29.
Garcia-Molina, M., and J.K. Ruiz-Tavera (2009–10) “Thirlwall’s Law and the Two-Gap Model: Toward an Unified ‘Dynamic Gap’ Model”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 32(2), 269–90.
Garcimartin, C., L.A Rivas and S. Diaz de Sarralde (2008) “Accounting for Irish Growth: A Balance of Payments Constraint Approach”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30(3), 409–33.
Garcimartin, C., L.A. Rivas and P. G. Martinez (2010–11) “On the Role of Relative Prices and Capital Flows in Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: The Experience of Portugal and Spain in the Euro Area”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30(3), 409–33.
Gouvea, R.R., and G.T. Lima (2010) “Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall’s Law”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 33(1), 169–204.
Gouvea, R.R., and G. Lima (2011) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth in a Multi-Sectoral Framework: A Panel Data Investigation” (mimeo).
Harrod, R. (1933) International Economics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Harrod, R. (1939) “An Essay in Dynamic Theory”, Economic Journal, 49(193), 14–33.
Heike, H. (1997) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: A Reconsideration of the Evidence for the US Economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19(3), 313–25.
Holland, M., F.V. Vieira and O. Canuto (2004) “Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint in Latin America”, Investigacion Economica, 63(249), 45–74.
Hughes, J.J., and A.P. Thirlwall (1979) “Imports and Labour Market Bottlenecks: A Disaggregated Study for the UK”, Applied Economics, 11(1), 77–94.
Hume, D. (1752) “Of Money” and “Of the Balance of Trade” in Political Discourses (Edinburgh: A. Kincaid and A. Donaldson).
Hussain, M.N. (1999) “The Balance of Payments Constraint and Growth Rate Differences Among African and East Asian Countries”, African Development Review, 11, 103–37.
Hussain, M.N. (2006) “The Implications of Thirlwall’s Law for Africa’s Development Challenges” in Philip Arestis, John McCombie, and Roger Vickerman (eds), Growth and Economic Development: Essays in Honour of A. P. Thirlwall (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar).
Jayme, F.G. (2003) “Balance of Payments Constrained Economic Growth in Brazil”, Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 23(1), 62–84.
Jeon, Y. (2009) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: The Case of China 1979–2002”, International Review of Applied Economics, 23(2), 135–46.
Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vector”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–54.
Kaldor, N. (1970) “The Case for Regional Policies”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 17(3), 337–48.
Keynes, J.M. (1936) The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (London: Macmillan).
Krugman, P. (1989) “Differences in the Income Elasticities and Trends in the Real Exchange Rates”, European Economic Review, 33(5), 1031–46.
Kvedaras, V. (2005) “Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of BOP Constraint”, Baltic Journal of Economics, summer/autumn, 48–65.
Landesmann, M., and J. Poschl (1996) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth in Central and Eastern Europe and Scenarios of East-West Integration”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 32(6), 30–84.
Leon-Ledesma, M. (1999) “An Application of Thirlwall’s Law to the Spanish Economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21, 431–40.
Leon-Ledesma, M., and A.P. Thiriwall (2000) “Is the Natural Rate of Growth Exogenous?” Banca Nazionale del Lvoro Quarterly Review, 53(215), 433–46.
Leon-Ledesma, M., and A.P. Thiriwall (2002) “Is the Natural Rate of Growth Exogenous? A Reply”, Banca Nazioale del Lavoro Quareterly Review, 55(221), 229–32.
Lopez, J., and A. Cruz (2000) “Thirlwall’s Law and Beyond: The Latin American Experience”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 22(3), 477–95.
Marques-Mendes, A., and A.P. Thirlwall (1989) “The Balance of Payments Constraint and Growth in Portugal 1951–86” in G. Yannopoulos (ed.) European Integration and the Iberian Economies (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan).
McClosky, D., and R. Zecher (1976) “How the Gold Standard Worked: 1880–1913” in J.A. Frenkel and H.G. Johnson (eds) The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments (London: Allen and Unwin).
McCombie, J.S.L. (1981) “Are International Growth Rates Constrained by the Balance of Payments?” Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 34(139), 455–58.
McCombie, J.S.L. (1985) “Economic Growth, the Harrod Trade Multiplier and the Hicks Supoer-Multiplier”, Applied Economics, 17(1), 55–72.
McCombie, J.S.L. (1997) “On the Empirics of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19(3), 345–75.
McCombie, J.S.L. (2011) “Criticisms and Defences of the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model : Some Old, Some New”, paper prepared for conference on Thirlwall’s Law and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, University of Coimbra, 24–25 June 2011.
McCombie, J.S.L., and A. P. Thirlwall (1997) “Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint Revisited” in P. Arestis, G. Palma, and M. Sawyer (eds) Markets, Unemployment and Economic Policy: Essays in Honour of G. Harcourt, vol. 2 (London: Edward Elgar).
McCombie, J.S.L., and A.P. Thirlwall (1997) “The Dynamic Harrod Trade Multiplier and the Demand-Oriented Approach to Economic Growth: An Evaluation”, International Review of Applied Economics, 11(1), 5–26.
McCombie, J.S.L. and A.P. Thirlwall (2004), Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Theory and Evidence (London: Routledge).
McCombie, J.S.L. (1989) “Thirlwall’s Law and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth — A Comment on the Debate”, Applied Economics, 21(5), 611–29.
McGregor, P., and K. Swales (1985) “Professor Thirlwall and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth”, Applied Economics, 17(1), 17–32.
Moggridge, D. (1973) The Collected Writings of J.M. Keynes: The General Theory and after Part 1 Preparation, vol XIII, (London: Macmillan).
Moreno-Brid, J. (1998) “Balance of Payments Constrained Economic Growth: The Case of Mexico”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 51(207). 413–33.
Moreno-Brid, J. (1998–89) “On Capital Flows and the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21(2), 283–98.
Moreno-Brid, J. (1999) “Mexico’s Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A Cointegration Analysis”, International Review of Applied Economics, 13(2), 149–59.
Moreno-Brid, J. (2003) “Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis”, Metroeconomica, 54(2–3), 346–65.
Moreno-Brid, J., and E. Perez (1999) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth in Central America: 1950–96”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 22(1), 131–47.
Myrdal, G. (1957) Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions (London: Duckworth).
Nell, K. (2003) “A Generalised Version of the Balance of Payments Growth Model: An Application to Neighbouring Regions”, International Review of Applied Economics, 17(3), 249–67.
Pacheco-Lopez, P., and A.P. Thirlwall (2006) “Trade Liberalisation, the Income Elasticity of Demand for Imports and Economic Growth in Latin America”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 29(1), 41–61.
Palley, T. (2003) “Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An Application to the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model”, Review of Political Economy, 15(1), 75–84.
Pasinetti, L. (1981) Structural Change and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Essay on the Dynamics of the Wealth of Nations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Pasinetti, L. (1993) Structural Dynamics: A Theory of the Economic Consequences of Human Learning (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Perraton, J. (2003) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An Examination of Thirlwall’s Hypothesis”, International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), 1–22.
Prebisch, R. (1950) The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems (New York: ECLA, UN Department of Economic Affairs).
Prebisch, R. (1959) “Commercial Policy in the Underdeveloped Countries”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 49(2), 251–73.
Razmi, A. (2005) “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 27(4), 655–87.
Ricardo, D. (1992 [1817]) Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (London: Everyman).
Roncaglia, A. (2008) “From BNL-QR to PSL-QR: The History (1947–2007) and Prospects of a Journal”, PSL Quarterly Review, 61, 244–47.
Sasaki, H. (2008–2009) “North-South Ricardian Trade and Growth Under the Balance of Payments Constraint”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 31(2), 299–324.
Serrano Sanz, J.M., M. Sabate and D. Gadea (1999) “Economic Growth and the Long-Run Balance of Payments Constraint in Spain”, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 8(4), 389–417.
Serra, A. (1613) Breve Trattato della Cause che Possano far Abbondare li Regni d’Oro e Argento dove non Sone Minere con Applicazione al Regno di Napoli (A Brief Treatise on the Causes which can Make Gold and Silver abound in Kingdoms where there are no Mines).
Setterfield, M. (2006) “Thirlwall’s Law and Palley’s Pitfalls: A Reconsideration” in Philip Arestis, John McCombie, and Roger Vickerman (eds) Growth and Economic Development: Essays in Honour of A.P. Thirlwall (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar).
Skolka, J. (1980) “Auβenhandel und Wirtschaftswachstun”, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 1/80.
Smith, A. (1776) An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (London: Straham and Cadell).
Solow, R. (1956) “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.
Taylor, L. (1981) “South-North Trade and Southern Growth: Bleak Prospects from a Structuralist Point of View”, Journal of International Economics, 11(4), 589–602.
Thirlwall, A.P. (1979) “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 32(128), 45–53.
Thirlwall, A.P. (1983) “Foreign Trade Elasticities in Centre-Periphery Models of Growth and Development”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 36(128), 45–53.
Thirlwall, A.P. (1991) “Professor Krugman’s 45-Degree Rule”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 14(1), 23–28.
Thirlwall, A.P. (1997) “Reflections on the Concept of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19(3), 377–85.
Thirlwall, A.P. (2001) “The Relation Between the Warranted Growth Rate, the Natural Growth Rate and the Balance of Payments Equilibrium Growth Rate”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 24(1), 81–8.
Thirlwall, A.P. (2006) “The Structure of Production, the Balance of Payments and Growth in Developing Countries: An Essay in Memory of Mohammed Nureldin Hussain”, African Development Review, 18(1), 98–121.
Thirlwall, A.P. (2011) “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences”, PSL Quarterly Review, 64(259), 307–51.
Thirlwall, A.P., and M.N. Hussain (1982) “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences Between Developing Countries”, Oxford Economic Papers, 34(3), 498–510.
Triffin, R. (1964) The Evaluation of the International Monetary System: Historical Appraisal and Future Perspectives (Princeton Studies in International Finance, no.18).
Turner, P. (1999) “The Balance of Payments Constraint and the Post-1973 Slowdown of Economic Growth in the G7 Economies”, International Review of Applied Economics, 13(1), 41–53.
Vera, L.A. (2006) “The Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: A North-South Approach”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 29(1), 67–92.
White, H., and A.P. Thirlwall (1974) “US Merchandise Imports and the Dispersion of Market Demand”, Applied Economics, 6(4), 275–92.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2012 Anthony Philip Thirlwall
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Thirlwall, A.P. (2012). Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview. In: Soukiazis, E., Cerqueira, P.A. (eds) Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137023957_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137023957_2
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-43840-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-02395-7
eBook Packages: Palgrave Economics & Finance CollectionEconomics and Finance (R0)