A Forecasting Framework for Evaluating Alternative Vehicle Fuels, Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process Model and Scenarios

Abstract

‘Green’ is the magic word in today’s world. Many different fuels and fuel motors are being developed, assuming they will be adopted and used in the future as an alternative to fossil-fuel-based technologies. But many questions still remain unanswered. Is there going to be a supply problem? Is the ‘Running out of fossil fuels’ scenario merely a hype? Do we have any green alternative that can be adopted on a mass scale? Is there any alternative fuel capable of giving all the benefits of current fossil fuels and simultaneously eliminating pollution and price problems? And many more such questions! Alternative fuel development research arose from the perennial uncertainty in oil prices. This chapter attempts to study the reasons behind oil price fluctuations, believing them to be the root of the problem. Then the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model is presented. The AHP model has different levels, like a tree, the lowest level displaying all the alternatives to the problem. Each type of alternative motor fuel is briefly explained. Issues such as cost and the pollution impact, are assessed for each. Then, in the next level of the AHP model, the criteria are presented. Criteria include the different factors that have an impact on the adoption of each alternative. Economic, cultural, environmental, sustainability and development time criteria are considered. Finally, in the uppermost level of the AHP tree model is the goal: to find the best motor fuel for the future. To prove the robustness of each alternative fuel, four different scenarios are used, and quantitative results for each scenario are presented. It is hoped that the quantified values for each alternative might give us an idea of where the solution lies.