Looking Ahead

Abstract

Like the erratic flight path of a moth, the course of international politics often seems to be an example of purposeful aimless-ness. Wise diplomats try to anticipate trends and prospective events, but they recognize that any grand strategy can be undermined by the elusiveness of predictability. If anyone were to say, “I knew the Tunisian, Egyptian, and Libyan regimes would fall in 2011,” that person’s hubris would be scoffed at. But if someone said, “Given the economic and social conditions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, and given the new communication tools that allow people better understanding of the world and better ability to connect with one another, I knew the regimes there were bound to fall at some point,” that person’s claim to prescience might be greeted with skepticism, but at least the prediction would be considered plausible.