Abstract
Japan is the now the oldest country in the world and getting older by the day. Currently there are almost 3 Japanese of working age per Japanese person of pensionable age. By 2040, this ratio will be 1 to 1. The graying of Japan reflects fertility and mortality rates that, demographically speaking, are hard to believe. In 1950 Japan’s fertility rate was 2.7. It’s now just 1.3. In comparison, today’s U.S. rate is 2.1. Japanese life expectancy at birth is currently 81 years—the highest of any country in the world and a full five years higher than that of the U.S. In the early 1950s, the U.S. had a five-year lead over Japan in the race to live the longest. But since then U.S. life expectancy increased by just seven years, while Japanese life expectancy rose by 17 years. By mid-century Japanese life expectancy is projected to reach 84. At that point Americans will be just starting to achieve current Japanese longevity.
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© 2006 International Monetary Fund
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Kotlikoff, L.J. (2006). Avoiding a Fiscal/Demographic/Economic Debacle in Japan. In: Kaizuka, K., Krueger, A.O. (eds) Tackling Japan’s Fiscal Challenges. Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137001566_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137001566_11
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
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