Fueling the Dragon: China’s Strategic Energy Dilemma

Abstract

As several of the chapters in this volume observe, China has enjoyed extraordinary economic growth over the past few decades and is expected to experience continuing high rates of growth for many years to come. According to the World Bank, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a factor of 10 between 1970 and 1990, reaching US$1.2 trillion at the end of that period; 5 years later, it had doubled again to US$2.3 trillion. Although most analysts believe that China will not be able to sustain double-digit rates of growth year after year in the future as it has in the past, it is still expected to outpace most other major economies. Indeed, a recent estimate by the U.S. Department of Energy places China’s GDP in 2025 at US$7.1 trillion, putting it ahead of every other economy on the planet save that of the United States (DoE/EIA 2008:Table A4, p. 99).¹